WON Case WON Larne 2-0 Cliftonville
Fixture Case File · Ref V
L

Larne

Home Side
W W W W D
3W 2D 1L ▲ Trending Up
VS
2-0
C
Cliftonville
Away Side
D L L W W
5W 1D 4L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
53%
Saturday, 28th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Larne to win
Larne 50%
Draw 20%
Cliftonville 30%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds3.33
Implied Prob73%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-20%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBL<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<F55419E4B4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 28 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Larne to win
1.37
BTTS — No68%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Larne vs Cliftonville Competition: NIFL Premiership Date: Saturday, 28th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Larne to win) Odds: 1.37 Confidence: 53% Also: BTTS — No (68%) Ledger Ref: F55419E4B
Head to Head
Record
6
Larne
3
Draws
1
Cliftonville
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Larne won 6 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Larne
Metric
Cliftonville
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.7
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1.5
50%
Clean Sheets
40%
3-2-1
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
50%
50%
3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
32%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
L0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 9.7%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
L2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
L3
3-0 5.5%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 2.6%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.9%) 1-0(9.7%) 2-0(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing L=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Larne Win
50%
2
Draw
20%
5
Cliftonville Win
30%
3.33
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Larne
Overall
6.0
Scoring
7.2
Defence
8.3
Cliftonville
Overall
5.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 29%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 24%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.12.25
NIFL: Larne0
Cliftonville0
18.10.25
NIFL: Cliftonville0
Larne2
19.08.25
NIFL: Cliftonville1
Larne1
14.01.25
CUP: Larne0
Cliftonville1
10.01.25
NIFL: Larne2
Cliftonville0
01.12.24
NIFL: Larne1
Cliftonville1
27.09.24
NIFL: Cliftonville1
Larne3
05.07.24
CHA: Larne2
Cliftonville1
13.04.24
NIFL: Larne8
Cliftonville1
02.04.24
NIFL: Cliftonville0
Larne2
Recent Form
Larne
30.12.25
NIFL: Larne0
Cliftonville0
18.10.25
NIFL: Cliftonville0
Larne2
19.08.25
NIFL: Cliftonville1
Larne1
14.01.25
CUP: Larne0
Cliftonville1
10.01.25
NIFL: Larne2
Cliftonville0
13.04.24
NIFL: Larne8
Cliftonville1
Cliftonville
21.03.26
NIFL: Cliftonville2
Ballymena2
D
18.03.26
NIFL: Glentoran3
Cliftonville0
L
14.03.26
NIFL: Coleraine1
Cliftonville0
L
10.03.26
NIFL: Crusaders0
Cliftonville1
W
07.03.26
CUP: Loughgall0
Cliftonville3
W
04.03.26
NIFL: Portadown0
Cliftonville2
W
01.03.26
NIFL: Cliftonville2
Linfield0
W
24.02.26
NIFL: Cliftonville0
Glentoran4
L
21.02.26
NIFL: Cliftonville5
Crusaders2
W
13.02.26
NIFL: Dungannon Swifts3
Cliftonville2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 28th March 2026, Larne host Cliftonville in NIFL Premiership. Our analysis desk recommends Larne to win as the standout selection.

Larne arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 6 outings.

Cliftonville are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Larne, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Cliftonville's 1, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: larne to win at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This NIFL Premiership game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.37. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 28 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Larne vs Cliftonville?
Our selection is 1 — Larne to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Larne's current form?
Larne have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 6 matches.
How has Cliftonville been performing recently?
Cliftonville have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Larne lead with 6 wins versus Cliftonville's 1, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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