LOST Case LOST Germany U19 1-3 Israel U19
Fixture Case File · Ref V
G

Germany U19

Home Side
D W W W L
6W 1D 2L → Holding Steady
VS
1-3
I
Israel U19
Away Side
L D W L D
1W 3D 6L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
63%
Saturday, 28th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Germany U19 to win
Germany U19 60%
Draw 20%
Israel U19 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob79.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-16.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBG<<<<<<<U19<<<<<<<<<<<I<<<<<<U19<<<<<<<08B801FDD4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 28 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Germany U19 to win
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals84% Over 1.5 Goals89% BTTS — Yes68%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Germany U19 vs Israel U19 Competition: Euro U19 Qualification Date: Saturday, 28th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Germany U19 to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 63% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (84%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (89%) Also: BTTS — Yes (68%) Ledger Ref: 08B801FDD
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Germany U19
Metric
Israel U19
2.9
Goals For / Game
1.4
1
Goals Against / Game
1.8
33%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-1-2
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
67%
10%
3.5
Avg Goals
89%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
I0
I1
I2
I3
I4
I5
G0
0-0 2.9%
0-1 3.5%
0-2 2.1%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
G1
1-0 6.8%
1-1 8.1%
1-2 4.9%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
G2
2-0 7.9%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.3%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
G3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 7.5%
3-2 4.5%
3-3 1.8%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
G4
4-0 3.7%
4-1 4.4%
4-2 2.6%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
G5
5-0 1.7%
5-1 2.1%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 2-0(7.9%) 3-1(7.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing G=Home goals ↓   I=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Germany U19 Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Israel U19 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Germany U19
Overall
7.0
Scoring
9.6
Defence
6.7
Israel U19
Overall
1.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
4.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 46%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 57%
Home Win & Under 2.5 11%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 2%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Germany U19
25.03.26
EUR: Germany U192
Sweden U192
D
18.11.25
FI: Wales U190
Germany U193
W
15.11.25
FI: Germany U193
Japan U192
W
12.11.25
FI: USA U192
Germany U191
L
14.10.25
EUR: Germany U192
Norway U191
W
11.10.25
EUR: Germany U195
Kosovo U190
W
08.10.25
EUR: Armenia U190
Germany U197
W
09.09.25
FI: Croatia U191
Germany U190
L
06.09.25
FI: Germany U193
Italy U191
W
Israel U19
25.03.26
EUR: Israel U191
Austria U192
L
19.02.26
FI: Cyprus U191
Israel U191
D
17.02.26
FI: Cyprus U190
Israel U193
W
14.10.25
EUR: Austria U193
Israel U191
L
11.10.25
EUR: Israel U192
Slovenia U192
D
08.10.25
EUR: Israel U190
Luxembourg U190
D
07.09.25
FI: Estonia U192
Israel U191
L
25.03.25
EUR: Belgium U193
Israel U192
L
22.03.25
EUR: Norway U192
Israel U191
L
19.03.25
EUR: Israel U192
Serbia U193
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 28th March 2026, Germany U19 host Israel U19 in Euro U19 Qualification. Our analysis desk recommends Germany U19 to win as the standout selection.

Germany U19 arrive in strong form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 9 outings.

Israel U19 are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: germany u19 to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Euro U19 Qualification game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.26. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 28 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Germany U19 vs Israel U19?
Our selection is 1 — Germany U19 to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Germany U19's current form?
Germany U19 have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 9 matches.
How has Israel U19 been performing recently?
Israel U19 have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game.
⚠️
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