WON Case WON Arsenal W 5-2 Tottenham Hotspur W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Arsenal W

Home Side
W W W W W
10W 0D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
5-2
T
Tottenham Hotspur W
Away Side
L L W W L
5W 0D 5L ▲ Trending Up
CASE VERIFIED
72%
Saturday, 28th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Arsenal W to win
Arsenal W 60%
Draw 20%
Tottenham Hotspur W 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob84%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-12%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<T<<<<<<<<<H<<<<<<DCB2B66364DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 28 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Arsenal W to win
1.19
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90% Arsenal W Clean Sheet70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Arsenal W vs Tottenham Hotspur W Competition: England WSL Date: Saturday, 28th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Arsenal W to win) Odds: 1.19 Confidence: 72% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: Arsenal W Clean Sheet (70%) Ledger Ref: DCB2B6636
Head to Head
Record
6
Arsenal W
2
Draws
2
Tottenham Hotspur W
10
Meetings
3.6
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Arsenal W won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Arsenal W
Metric
Tottenham Hotspur W
3.2
Goals For / Game
2
0.4
Goals Against / Game
1.9
70%
Clean Sheets
20%
10-0-0
W — D — L
5-0-5
Win Rate
100%
50%
3.8
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
A0
0-0 2.4%
0-1 2.8%
0-2 1.7%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 6.0%
1-1 7.2%
1-2 4.3%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 7.7%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
A3
3-0 6.5%
3-1 7.8%
3-2 4.7%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 4.1%
4-1 5.0%
4-2 3.0%
4-3 1.2%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 2.1%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.5%
5-3 0.6%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.2%) 3-1(7.8%) 2-0(7.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Arsenal W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Tottenham Hotspur W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Arsenal W
Overall
10.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
8.7
Tottenham Hotspur W
Overall
5.0
Scoring
6.7
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 47%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
16.11.25
WSL: Tottenham W0
Arsenal0
23.08.25
CF: Arsenal W3
Tottenham4
16.02.25
WSL: Arsenal W5
Tottenham0
16.11.24
WSL: Tottenham W0
Arsenal3
03.03.24
WSL: Arsenal W1
Tottenham0
16.12.23
WSL: Tottenham W1
Arsenal0
13.12.23
CUP: Arsenal W3
Tottenham W (3-4 pens)3
25.03.23
WSL: Tottenham W1
Arsenal5
24.09.22
WSL: Arsenal W4
Tottenham0
04.05.22
WSL: Arsenal W3
Tottenham0
Recent Form
Arsenal W
24.03.26
UWCL: Arsenal W3
Chelsea W1
W
21.03.26
WSL: Arsenal W5
West Ham W0
W
15.03.26
WSL: London City0
Arsenal W2
W
22.02.26
FAC: Arsenal W3
Bristol City W0
W
18.02.26
UWCL: Arsenal W3
Leuven W1
W
11.02.26
UWCL: Leuven W0
Arsenal W4
W
08.02.26
WSL: Arsenal W1
Manchester City W0
W
01.02.26
WCC: Arsenal W3
Corinthians W2
W
28.01.26
WCC: Arsenal W6
FAR Rabat W0
W
24.01.26
WSL: Chelsea W0
Arsenal W2
W
Tottenham Hotspur W
21.03.26
WSL: Man City W5
Tottenham W2
L
15.03.26
WSL: Tottenham W1
Everton W2
L
23.02.26
FAC: London City2
Tottenham W3
W
15.02.26
WSL: Aston Villa W3
Tottenham W7
W
08.02.26
WSL: Tottenham W0
Chelsea W2
L
01.02.26
WSL: West Ham W1
Tottenham W2
W
25.01.26
WSL: Liverpool W2
Tottenham W0
L
18.01.26
FAC: Tottenham W3
Leicester W0
W
11.01.26
WSL: Tottenham W1
Leicester W0
W
21.12.25
CUP: Man Utd W2
Tottenham W1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 28th March 2026, Arsenal W host Tottenham Hotspur W in England WSL. Our analysis desk recommends Arsenal W to win as the standout selection.

Arsenal W arrive in strong form, having recorded 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Tottenham Hotspur W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 0D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Arsenal W, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Tottenham Hotspur W's 2, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: arsenal w to win at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This England WSL game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.19. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 28 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Arsenal W vs Tottenham Hotspur W?
Our selection is 1 — Arsenal W to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 72%.
What is Arsenal W's current form?
Arsenal W have won 10, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Tottenham Hotspur W been performing recently?
Tottenham Hotspur W have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Arsenal W lead with 6 wins versus Tottenham Hotspur W's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. DailyForebet provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Betting carries risk: debt, isolation, dependency. Predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only, not financial advice.