WON Case WON Den Haag 1-0 Jong Utrecht

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Den Haag

Q: What is the recommended bet for Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?

Our selection is 1 — Den Haag to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 57%.

Q: What is Den Haag's current form?

Den Haag have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Jong Utrecht been performing recently?

Jong Utrecht have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Den Haag lead with 2 wins versus Jong Utrecht's 0, with 3 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

Home Side

W L W W W

4W 0D 1L ▲ Trending Up

1-0

Jong Utrecht

Away Side

W L L L L

1W 0D 4L ▼ Trending Down

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MODERATE

57%

Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Den Haag to win

Den Haag 50%

Draw 30%

Jong Utrecht 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob76.9%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-19.9%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBD<<<H<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<J<<<<U<<<<<<<<<<<4E4FD7FF94DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 17 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Den Haag to win

1.30

Under 2.5 Goals80% BTTS — No80% Den Haag Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht Competition: Eerste Divisie Date: Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Den Haag to win) Odds: 1.30 Confidence: 57% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: BTTS — No (80%) Also: Den Haag Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 4E4FD7FF9

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Head to Head

Record

Den Haag

Draws

Jong Utrecht

Meetings

3.2

Avg Goals

60%

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

Against Filing Den Haag won 2 of the last 5 meetings (3 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Den Haag

Metric

Jong Utrecht

1.2

Goals For / Game

0.6

0.4

Goals Against / Game

1.2

60%

Clean Sheets

20%

4-0-1

W — D — L

1-0-4

Win Rate

80%

20%

1.7

Avg Goals

20%

Over 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

20%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 18.3%

0-1 9.1%

0-2 2.3%

0-3 0.4%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 21.9%

1-1 11.0%

1-2 2.7%

1-3 0.5%

1-4 0.1%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 13.2%

2-1 6.6%

2-2 1.6%

2-3 0.3%

2-4 0.0%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 5.3%

3-1 2.6%

3-2 0.7%

3-3 0.1%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 1.6%

4-1 0.8%

4-2 0.2%

4-3 0.0%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.4%

5-1 0.2%

5-2 0.1%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(21.9%) 2-0(13.2%) 2-1(6.6%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing D=Home goals ↓ J=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Den Haag Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Jong Utrecht Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Den Haag

Overall

8.0 —

Scoring

4.0 —

Defence

8.7 —

Jong Utrecht

Overall

2.0 —

Scoring

2.0 —

Defence

6.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 16%

Home Win & BTTS No 64%

Draw & BTTS Yes 0%

Draw & BTTS No 0%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%

Away Win & BTTS No 16%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 16%

Home Win & Under 2.5 64%

Draw & Over 2.5 0%

Draw & Under 2.5 0%

Away Win & Over 2.5 4%

Away Win & Under 2.5 16%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

18.08.25

EER: Jong Utrecht2

Den Haag2

07.04.25

EER: Jong Utrecht1

Den Haag1

27.09.24

EER: Den Haag1

Jong Utrecht1

29.04.24

EER: Jong Utrecht0

Den Haag2

27.11.23

EER: Den Haag6

Jong Utrecht0

Recent Form

Den Haag

13.03.26

EER: FC Emmen0

Den Haag1

07.03.26

EER: Almere City1

Den Haag0

27.02.26

EER: Den Haag1

VVV-Venlo0

24.02.26

EER: Willem II0

Den Haag1

20.02.26

EER: Helmond Sport1

Den Haag3

Jong Utrecht

13.03.26

EER: Jong Utrecht1

Helmond Sport0

08.03.26

EER: Cambuur1

Jong Utrecht0

02.03.26

EER: FC Emmen1

Jong Utrecht0

27.02.26

EER: Jong Utrecht2

Almere City3

20.02.26

EER: De Graafschap1

Jong Utrecht0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 17th March 2026, Den Haag host Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie. Our analysis desk recommends Den Haag to win as the standout selection.

Den Haag arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Jong Utrecht are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 0D 4L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Den Haag, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Jong Utrecht's 0, with 3 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: den haag to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 17 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?

Our selection is 1 — Den Haag to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 57%.

What is Den Haag's current form?

Den Haag have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Jong Utrecht been performing recently?

Jong Utrecht have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Den Haag lead with 2 wins versus Jong Utrecht's 0, with 3 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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