WON Case WON MC Alger 2-1 Khenchela

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

MC Alger

Q: What is the recommended bet for MC Alger vs Khenchela?

Our selection is 1 — MC Alger to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 50%.

Q: What is MC Alger's current form?

MC Alger have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Khenchela been performing recently?

Khenchela have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

MC Alger lead with 3 wins versus Khenchela's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

Home Side

W W L D L

2W 1D 2L ▼ Trending Down

2-1

Khenchela

Away Side

W L L W D

2W 1D 2L → Holding Steady

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MODERATE

50%

Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on MC Alger to win

MC Alger 50%

Draw 30%

Khenchela 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob77.5%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-27.5%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBMC<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<K<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<522AEFECA4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — MC Alger to win

1.29

Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80% MC Alger Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

MC Alger vs Khenchela Competition: Algeria Ligue 1 Date: Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Pick: 1 (MC Alger to win) Odds: 1.29 Confidence: 50% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: MC Alger Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 522AEFECA

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Head to Head

Record

MC Alger

Draws

Khenchela

Meetings

2.2

Avg Goals

60%

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing MC Alger won 3 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

MC Alger

Metric

Khenchela

Goals For / Game

1.6

Goals Against / Game

1.6

60%

Clean Sheets

2-1-2

W — D — L

2-1-2

Win Rate

40%

3.1

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

70%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 4.5%

0-1 5.9%

0-2 3.8%

0-3 1.7%

0-4 0.5%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 8.1%

1-1 10.5%

1-2 6.9%

1-3 3.0%

1-4 1.0%

1-5 0.3%

2-0 7.3%

2-1 9.5%

2-2 6.2%

2-3 2.7%

2-4 0.9%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 4.4%

3-1 5.7%

3-2 3.7%

3-3 1.6%

3-4 0.5%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 2.0%

4-1 2.6%

4-2 1.7%

4-3 0.7%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.7%

5-1 0.9%

5-2 0.6%

5-3 0.3%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 1-0(8.1%) 2-0(7.3%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing M=Home goals ↓ K=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

MC Alger Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Khenchela Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

MC Alger

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

6.7 —

Defence

6.7 —

Khenchela

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

4.7 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Home Win & BTTS No 16%

Draw & BTTS Yes 12%

Draw & BTTS No 8%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Away Win & BTTS No 16%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 28%

Home Win & Under 2.5 12%

Draw & Over 2.5 14%

Draw & Under 2.5 6%

Away Win & Over 2.5 28%

Away Win & Under 2.5 12%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

13.12.25

CUP: MC Alger2

Khenchela1

30.10.25

DIV: Khenchela0

MC Alger1

15.03.25

DIV: MC Alger2

Khenchela2

18.10.24

DIV: Khenchela0

MC Alger1

11.05.24

DIV: Khenchela1

MC Alger1

Recent Form

MC Alger

13.03.26

DIV: Paradou AC0

MC Alger2

07.03.26

DIV: ES Mostaganem0

MC Alger5

03.03.26

CUP: CR Belouizdad3

MC Alger2

26.02.26

DIV: MC Alger0

JS Kabylie0

20.02.26

DIV: MC Oran2

MC Alger1

Khenchela

13.03.26

DIV: Khenchela2

Kabylie1

06.03.26

DIV: Oran2

Khenchela1

28.02.26

DIV: Khenchela0

Olympique Akbou1

21.02.26

DIV: Ben Aknoun2

Khenchela3

04.02.26

DIV: Khenchela2

ASO Chlef2

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 17th March 2026, MC Alger host Khenchela in Algeria Ligue 1. Our analysis desk recommends MC Alger to win as the standout selection.

MC Alger arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Khenchela are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 1D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour MC Alger, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Khenchela's 0, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: mc alger to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 18 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for MC Alger vs Khenchela?

Our selection is 1 — MC Alger to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 50%.

What is MC Alger's current form?

MC Alger have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Khenchela been performing recently?

Khenchela have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

MC Alger lead with 3 wins versus Khenchela's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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