WON Case WON Venezia 3-1 Padova

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Venezia

Q: What is the recommended bet for Venezia vs Padova?

Our selection is 1 — Venezia to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 61%.

Q: What is Venezia's current form?

Venezia have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Padova been performing recently?

Padova have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Venezia lead with 4 wins versus Padova's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

Home Side

D W W D W

3W 2D 0L → Holding Steady

3-1

Padova

Away Side

L L D W D

1W 3D 1L ▲ Trending Up

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MODERATE

61%

Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Venezia to win

Venezia 50%

Draw 30%

Padova 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob80%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-19%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBV<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<B8A1A01FE4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 17 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Venezia to win

1.25

Over 1.5 Goals80% Venezia Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Venezia vs Padova Competition: Serie B Date: Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Venezia to win) Odds: 1.25 Confidence: 61% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: Venezia Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: B8A1A01FE

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Head to Head

Record

Venezia

Draws

Padova

Meetings

2.2

Avg Goals

40%

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Venezia won 4 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Venezia

Metric

Padova

Goals For / Game

1.2

0.6

Goals Against / Game

1.2

60%

Clean Sheets

3-2-0

W — D — L

1-3-1

Win Rate

60%

20%

2.5

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 8.2%

0-1 7.4%

0-2 3.3%

0-3 1.0%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 13.1%

1-1 11.8%

1-2 5.3%

1-3 1.6%

1-4 0.4%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 10.5%

2-1 9.5%

2-2 4.3%

2-3 1.3%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 5.6%

3-1 5.0%

3-2 2.3%

3-3 0.7%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 2.2%

4-1 2.0%

4-2 0.9%

4-3 0.3%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.7%

5-1 0.7%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(13.1%) 2-0(10.5%) 2-1(9.5%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing V=Home goals ↓ P=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Venezia Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Padova Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Venezia

Overall

7.2 —

Scoring

6.7 —

Defence

8.0 —

Padova

Overall

3.8 —

Scoring

4.0 —

Defence

6.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%

Home Win & BTTS No 18%

Draw & BTTS Yes 23%

Draw & BTTS No 15%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%

Away Win & BTTS No 6%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 18%

Home Win & Under 2.5 28%

Draw & Over 2.5 15%

Draw & Under 2.5 23%

Away Win & Over 2.5 6%

Away Win & Under 2.5 10%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

22.11.25

SB: Padova0

Venezia2

27.01.19

SB: Venezia2

Padova1

01.09.18

SB: Padova1

Venezia0

10.04.17

SC: Padova0

Venezia1

08.03.17

COP: Venezia3

Padova1

Recent Form

Venezia

14.03.26

SB: Sampdoria0

Venezia0

07.03.26

SB: Venezia2

Reggiana0

03.03.26

SB: Venezia4

Avellino0

28.02.26

SB: Südtirol1

Venezia1

21.02.26

SB: Venezia3

Pescara2

Padova

14.03.26

SB: Padova1

Catanzaro1

07.03.26

SB: Avellino1

Padova0

03.03.26

SB: Padova2

Spezia2

28.02.26

SB: Modena1

Padova2

21.02.26

SB: Padova1

Bari1

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 17th March 2026, Venezia host Padova in Serie B. Our analysis desk recommends Venezia to win as the standout selection.

Venezia arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Padova are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 1L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Venezia, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Padova's 1, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: venezia to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 17 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Venezia vs Padova?

Our selection is 1 — Venezia to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 61%.

What is Venezia's current form?

Venezia have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Padova been performing recently?

Padova have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Venezia lead with 4 wins versus Padova's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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