WON Case WON Arsenal 2-0 Bayern Leverkusen

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Arsenal

Q: What is the recommended bet for Arsenal vs Bayern Leverkusen?

Our selection is 1 — Arsenal to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 57%.

Q: What is Arsenal's current form?

Arsenal have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Bayern Leverkusen been performing recently?

Bayern Leverkusen have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Arsenal lead with 2 wins versus Bayern Leverkusen's 0, with 2 draws across 4 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

Home Side

W D W W W

3W 2D 0L ▼ Trending Down

2-0

Bayern Leverkusen

Away Side

D D D W D

1W 2D 2L ▲ Trending Up

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MODERATE

57%

Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Arsenal to win

Implied Prob76.9%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-19.9%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<L<<<<<<<<<131C30D214DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 17 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Arsenal to win

1.30

Under 2.5 Goals70% BTTS — No70% Arsenal Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Arsenal vs Bayern Leverkusen Competition: UEFA Champions League Date: Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Arsenal to win) Odds: 1.30 Confidence: 57% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: Arsenal Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 131C30D21

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Head to Head

Record

Arsenal

Draws

Bayern Leverkusen

Meetings

3.5

Avg Goals

100%

BTTS

50%

Over 2.5

Neutral Arsenal won 2 of the last 4 meetings (2 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Arsenal

Metric

Bayern Leverkusen

1.2

Goals For / Game

0.6

0.4

Goals Against / Game

1.4

60%

Clean Sheets

40%

3-2-0

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate

60%

20%

1.8

Avg Goals

70%

Over 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

30%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 16.5%

0-1 8.3%

0-2 2.1%

0-3 0.3%

0-4 0.0%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 21.5%

1-1 10.7%

1-2 2.7%

1-3 0.5%

1-4 0.1%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 14.0%

2-1 7.0%

2-2 1.8%

2-3 0.3%

2-4 0.0%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 6.1%

3-1 3.0%

3-2 0.8%

3-3 0.1%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 2.0%

4-1 1.0%

4-2 0.3%

4-3 0.0%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.5%

5-1 0.3%

5-2 0.1%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(21.5%) 2-0(14.0%) 2-1(7.0%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓ B=Away →

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Team Ratings

Grades

Arsenal

Overall

7.2 —

Scoring

4.0 —

Defence

8.7 —

Bayern Leverkusen

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

2.0 —

Defence

5.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%

Home Win & BTTS No 35%

Draw & BTTS Yes 10%

Draw & BTTS No 23%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%

Away Win & BTTS No 12%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 15%

Home Win & Under 2.5 35%

Draw & Over 2.5 10%

Draw & Under 2.5 23%

Away Win & Over 2.5 5%

Away Win & Under 2.5 12%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

11.03.26

UCL: Bayer Leverkusen1

Arsenal1

07.08.24

CF: Arsenal4

Bayer Leverkusen1

27.02.02

UCL: Arsenal4

Bayer Leverkusen1

19.02.02

UCL: Bayer Leverkusen1

Arsenal1

Recent Form

Arsenal

14.03.26

PL: Arsenal2

Everton0

20.12.25

PL: Everton0

Arsenal1

05.04.25

PL: Everton1

Arsenal1

14.12.24

PL: Arsenal0

Everton0

19.05.24

PL: Arsenal2

Everton1

Bayern Leverkusen

14.03.26

BUN: Bayer Leverkusen1

Bayern Munich1

01.11.25

BUN: Bayern Munich3

Bayer Leverkusen0

11.03.25

UCL: Bayer Leverkusen0

Bayern Munich2

05.03.25

UCL: Bayern Munich3

Bayer Leverkusen0

15.02.25

BUN: Bayer Leverkusen0

Bayern Munich0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 17th March 2026, Arsenal host Bayern Leverkusen in UEFA Champions League. Our analysis desk recommends Arsenal to win as the standout selection.

Arsenal arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Bayern Leverkusen are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Arsenal, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Bayern Leverkusen's 0, with 2 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: arsenal to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 17 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Arsenal vs Bayern Leverkusen?

Our selection is 1 — Arsenal to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 57%.

What is Arsenal's current form?

Arsenal have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Bayern Leverkusen been performing recently?

Bayern Leverkusen have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Arsenal lead with 2 wins versus Bayern Leverkusen's 0, with 2 draws across 4 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

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