WON Case WON Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3-1 Baghdad

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Q: What is the recommended bet for Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Baghdad?

Our selection is 1 — Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 72%.

Q: What is Al Quwa Al Jawiya's current form?

Al Quwa Al Jawiya have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Baghdad been performing recently?

Baghdad have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Al Quwa Al Jawiya lead with 3 wins versus Baghdad's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

Home Side

W W W W W

5W 0D 0L → Holding Steady

3-1

Baghdad

Away Side

L L L L D

0W 2D 3L → Holding Steady

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CASE VERIFIED

72%

Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win

Implied Prob78.1%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-6.1%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBA<<Q<<<<A<<J<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<26E2117874DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 17 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win

1.28

Over 1.5 Goals80%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Baghdad Competition: Iraq Stars League Date: Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win) Odds: 1.28 Confidence: 72% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: 26E211787

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Head to Head

Record

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Draws

Baghdad

Meetings

1.8

Avg Goals

40%

BTTS

20%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 3 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Metric

Baghdad

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.4

0.6

Goals Against / Game

40%

Clean Sheets

20%

5-0-0

W — D — L

0-2-3

Win Rate

100%

2.4

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 9.1%

0-1 4.5%

0-2 1.1%

0-3 0.2%

0-4 0.0%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 17.2%

1-1 8.6%

1-2 2.2%

1-3 0.4%

1-4 0.0%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 16.4%

2-1 8.2%

2-2 2.1%

2-3 0.3%

2-4 0.0%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 10.4%

3-1 5.2%

3-2 1.3%

3-3 0.2%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 4.9%

4-1 2.5%

4-2 0.6%

4-3 0.1%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.9%

5-1 0.9%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(17.2%) 2-0(16.4%) 3-0(10.4%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓ B=Away →

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Team Ratings

Grades

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Overall

10.0 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

8.0 —

Baghdad

Overall

1.2 —

Scoring

1.3 —

Defence

3.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 42%

Home Win & BTTS No 42%

Draw & BTTS Yes 9%

Draw & BTTS No 9%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Away Win & BTTS No 0%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 42%

Home Win & Under 2.5 42%

Draw & Over 2.5 9%

Draw & Under 2.5 9%

Away Win & Over 2.5 0%

Away Win & Under 2.5 0%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

13.01.26

SL: Baghdad0

Al Quwa Al Jawiya2

26.06.24

SL: Baghdad0

Al Quwa Al Jawiya2

09.03.24

SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya1

Baghdad1

09.05.22

SL: Baghdad0

Al Quwa Al Jawiya0

31.10.21

SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2

Baghdad1

Recent Form

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

13.03.26

SL: Diyala0

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1

06.03.26

SL: Al Gharraf1

Al Quwa Al Jawiya2

28.02.26

SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2

Al Najaf0

20.02.26

SL: Al Talaba1

Al Quwa Al Jawiya2

13.02.26

SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2

Newroz1

Baghdad

12.03.26

SL: Baghdad0

Newroz2

01.03.26

SL: Baghdad1

Al Naft2

22.02.26

SL: Al Kahraba5

Baghdad0

06.02.26

SL: Baghdad0

Al Minaa0

31.01.26

SL: Baghdad1

Erbil1

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 17th March 2026, Al Quwa Al Jawiya host Baghdad in Iraq Stars League. Our analysis desk recommends Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win as the standout selection.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya arrive in strong form, having recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Baghdad are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Quwa Al Jawiya, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Baghdad's 0, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al quwa al jawiya to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 17 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Baghdad?

Our selection is 1 — Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 72%.

What is Al Quwa Al Jawiya's current form?

Al Quwa Al Jawiya have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Baghdad been performing recently?

Baghdad have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Al Quwa Al Jawiya lead with 3 wins versus Baghdad's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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