Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Abha

Q: What is the recommended bet for Abha vs Al Jubail?

Our selection is 1 — Abha to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 67%.

Q: What is Abha's current form?

Abha have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Al Jubail been performing recently?

Al Jubail have recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Abha lead with 3 wins versus Al Jubail's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

Home Side

D D W W W

3W 2D 0L ▲ Trending Up

—

Al Jubail

Away Side

W L W L L

2W 0D 3L → Holding Steady

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CASE VERIFIED

67%

Sunday, 8th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Abha to win

Abha 60%

Draw 20%

Al Jubail 20%

H Fair Odds1.67

D Fair Odds5

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob84%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-17%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<J<<<<<<<<<<<<<9815E46164DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 8 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Abha to win

1.19

Over 1.5 Goals80%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Abha vs Al Jubail Competition: Saudi Division 1 Date: Sunday, 8th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Abha to win) Odds: 1.19 Confidence: 67% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: 9815E4616

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Head to Head

Record

Abha

Draws

Al Jubail

Meetings

2.7

Avg Goals

BTTS

67%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Abha won 3 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Abha

Metric

Al Jubail

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.8

Goals Against / Game

1.8

20%

Clean Sheets

20%

3-2-0

W — D — L

2-0-3

Win Rate

60%

40%

2.7

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 6.7%

0-1 6.1%

0-2 2.7%

0-3 0.8%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 12.1%

1-1 10.9%

1-2 4.9%

1-3 1.5%

1-4 0.3%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 10.9%

2-1 9.8%

2-2 4.4%

2-3 1.3%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 6.5%

3-1 5.9%

3-2 2.7%

3-3 0.8%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 2.9%

4-1 2.7%

4-2 1.2%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.1%

5-1 1.0%

5-2 0.4%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(12.1%) 2-0(10.9%) 2-1(9.8%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓ A=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Abha Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Al Jubail Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Abha

Overall

7.2 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

7.3 —

Al Jubail

Overall

4.0 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

4.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%

Home Win & BTTS No 20%

Draw & BTTS Yes 10%

Draw & BTTS No 7%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%

Away Win & BTTS No 13%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 25%

Home Win & Under 2.5 25%

Draw & Over 2.5 9%

Draw & Under 2.5 9%

Away Win & Over 2.5 17%

Away Win & Under 2.5 17%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ DIV (Nov 22, 2025): Al Jubail0

Abha3

⚽ DIV (Mar 16, 2025): Abha4

Al Jubail0

⚽ DIV (Nov 5, 2024): Al Jubail0

Abha1

Recent Form

Abha

⚽ DIV (Mar 1, 2026): Al Jandal1

Abha1

⚽ DIV (Feb 24, 2026): Abha1

Al Anwar1

⚽ DIV (Feb 20, 2026): Al Arabi1

Abha3

⚽ DIV (Feb 15, 2026): Abha2

Al Wehda1

⚽ DIV (Feb 9, 2026): Abha2

Al Zulfi0

Al Jubail

⚽ DIV (Mar 1, 2026): Al Jubail2

Al Bukiryah1

⚽ DIV (Feb 24, 2026): Al Raed1

Al Jubail0

⚽ DIV (Feb 19, 2026): Al Jubail1

Al Batin0

⚽ DIV (Feb 14, 2026): Al Taee4

Al Jubail0

⚽ DIV (Feb 9, 2026): Al Jubail2

Al Orubah3

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Sunday, 8th March 2026, Abha host Al Jubail in Saudi Division 1. Our analysis desk recommends Abha to win as the standout selection.

Abha arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Al Jubail are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 0D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Abha, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Al Jubail's 0, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: abha to win at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 8 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Abha vs Al Jubail?

Our selection is 1 — Abha to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 67%.

What is Abha's current form?

Abha have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Al Jubail been performing recently?

Al Jubail have recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Abha lead with 3 wins versus Al Jubail's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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