WON Case WON Villarreal 2-1 Elche

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Villarreal

Q: What is the recommended bet for Villarreal vs Elche?

Our selection is 1 — Villarreal to win, priced at approximately 1.53. Tip confidence rating: 56%.

Q: What is Villarreal's current form?

Villarreal have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Elche been performing recently?

Elche have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Villarreal lead with 3 wins versus Elche's 2, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

Home Side

L W W L W

3W 0D 2L → Holding Steady

2-1

Elche

Away Side

D L D L L

0W 2D 3L → Holding Steady

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MODERATE

56%

Sunday, 8th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Villarreal to win

Villarreal 50%

Draw 30%

Elche 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob65.4%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-9.4%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBV<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<E<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<26F5650BF4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 8 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Villarreal to win

1.53

Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals80% BTTS — Yes80%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Villarreal vs Elche Competition: La Liga Date: Sunday, 8th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Villarreal to win) Odds: 1.53 Confidence: 56% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: BTTS — Yes (80%) Ledger Ref: 26F5650BF

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Head to Head

Record

Villarreal

Draws

Elche

Meetings

3.6

Avg Goals

60%

BTTS

80%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Villarreal won 3 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Villarreal

Metric

Elche

1.8

Goals For / Game

1.6

Goals Against / Game

20%

Clean Sheets

20%

3-0-2

W — D — L

0-2-3

Win Rate

60%

3.2

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

80%

Over 2.5

80%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 4.1%

0-1 5.3%

0-2 3.4%

0-3 1.5%

0-4 0.5%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 7.7%

1-1 10.1%

1-2 6.5%

1-3 2.8%

1-4 0.9%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 7.4%

2-1 9.6%

2-2 6.2%

2-3 2.7%

2-4 0.9%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 4.7%

3-1 6.1%

3-2 3.9%

3-3 1.7%

3-4 0.6%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 2.2%

4-1 2.9%

4-2 1.9%

4-3 0.8%

4-4 0.3%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.8%

5-1 1.1%

5-2 0.7%

5-3 0.3%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 2-1(9.6%) 1-0(7.7%) 2-0(7.4%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing V=Home goals ↓ E=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Villarreal Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Elche Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Villarreal

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

4.7 —

Elche

Overall

1.2 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

3.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 60%

Home Win & BTTS No 15%

Draw & BTTS Yes 20%

Draw & BTTS No 5%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Away Win & BTTS No 0%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 60%

Home Win & Under 2.5 15%

Draw & Over 2.5 20%

Draw & Under 2.5 5%

Away Win & Over 2.5 0%

Away Win & Under 2.5 0%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ LL (Jan 3, 2026): Elche1

Villarreal3

⚽ LL (Feb 4, 2023): Elche3

Villarreal1

⚽ LL (Sep 4, 2022): Villarreal4

Elche0

⚽ LL (Jan 16, 2022): Elche1

Villarreal0

⚽ LL (Sep 22, 2021): Villarreal4

Elche1

Recent Form

Villarreal

⚽ LL (Feb 28, 2026): Barcelona4

Villarreal1

⚽ LL (Feb 22, 2026): Villarreal2

Valencia1

⚽ LL (Feb 18, 2026): Levante0

Villarreal1

⚽ LL (Feb 14, 2026): Getafe2

Villarreal1

⚽ LL (Feb 9, 2026): Villarreal4

Espanyol1

Elche

⚽ LL (Mar 1, 2026): Elche2

Espanyol2

⚽ LL (Feb 20, 2026): Ath Bilbao2

Elche1

⚽ LL (Feb 13, 2026): Elche0

Osasuna0

⚽ LL (Feb 7, 2026): Real Sociedad3

Elche1

⚽ LL (Jan 31, 2026): Elche1

Barcelona3

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Sunday, 8th March 2026, Villarreal host Elche in La Liga. Our analysis desk recommends Villarreal to win as the standout selection.

Villarreal arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Elche are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Villarreal, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Elche's 2, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: villarreal to win at odds of 1.53 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 8 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Villarreal vs Elche?

Our selection is 1 — Villarreal to win, priced at approximately 1.53. Tip confidence rating: 56%.

What is Villarreal's current form?

Villarreal have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Elche been performing recently?

Elche have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Villarreal lead with 3 wins versus Elche's 2, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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