WON Case WON CSKA Sofia 2-0 Lok Sofia

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

CSKA Sofia

Q: What is the recommended bet for CSKA Sofia vs Lok Sofia?

Our selection is 1 — CSKA Sofia to win, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 55%.

Q: What is CSKA Sofia's current form?

CSKA Sofia have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Lok Sofia been performing recently?

Lok Sofia have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

CSKA Sofia lead with 4 wins versus Lok Sofia's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

Home Side

W L W W W

2W 0D 3L → Holding Steady

2-0

Lok Sofia

Away Side

W L D L W

2W 1D 2L → Holding Steady

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MODERATE

55%

Sunday, 8th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on CSKA Sofia to win

CSKA Sofia 50%

Draw 30%

Lok Sofia 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob69%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-14%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBCSKA<S<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<L<<<S<<<<<<<<<<<<76023B5924DFB2608242M2608249<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 8 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Head to Head

Record

CSKA Sofia

Draws

Lok Sofia

Meetings

Avg Goals

40%

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing CSKA Sofia won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

CSKA Sofia

Metric

Lok Sofia

0.6

Goals For / Game

Goals Against / Game

40%

Clean Sheets

20%

2-0-3

W — D — L

2-1-2

Win Rate

40%

2.8

Avg Goals

70%

Over 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 6.1%

0-1 9.1%

0-2 6.8%

0-3 3.4%

0-4 1.3%

0-5 0.4%

1-0 7.9%

1-1 11.9%

1-2 8.9%

1-3 4.5%

1-4 1.7%

1-5 0.5%

2-0 5.1%

2-1 7.7%

2-2 5.8%

2-3 2.9%

2-4 1.1%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 2.2%

3-1 3.3%

3-2 2.5%

3-3 1.3%

3-4 0.5%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 0.7%

4-1 1.1%

4-2 0.8%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.2%

5-1 0.3%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(7.9%) 2-1(7.7%) 2-0(5.1%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing C=Home goals ↓ L=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

CSKA Sofia Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Lok Sofia Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

CSKA Sofia

Overall

4.0 —

Scoring

2.0 —

Defence

6.7 —

Lok Sofia

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

6.7 —

Defence

3.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Home Win & BTTS No 26%

Draw & BTTS Yes 4%

Draw & BTTS No 7%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Away Win & BTTS No 27%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 18%

Home Win & Under 2.5 26%

Draw & Over 2.5 4%

Draw & Under 2.5 7%

Away Win & Over 2.5 18%

Away Win & Under 2.5 27%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ CUP (Dec 13, 2025): CSKA Sofia2

Lok. Sofia1

⚽ 1L (Sep 27, 2025): Lok. Sofia1

CSKA Sofia1

⚽ 1L (Apr 2, 2025): CSKA Sofia1

Lok. Sofia0

⚽ 1L (Sep 16, 2024): Lok. Sofia0

CSKA Sofia3

⚽ 1L (Mar 30, 2024): Lok. Sofia0

CSKA Sofia1

Recent Form

CSKA Sofia

⚽ 1L (Mar 4, 2026): CSKA Sofia1

Botev Vratsa0

⚽ 1L (Feb 28, 2026): Septemvri Sofia2

CSKA Sofia0

⚽ 1L (Feb 21, 2026): CSKA Sofia1

Slavia Sofia0

⚽ 1L (Feb 14, 2026): CSKA 1948 Sofia0

CSKA Sofia2

⚽ CUP (Feb 10, 2026): CSKA Sofia2

CSKA 1948 Sofia0

Lok Sofia

⚽ 1L (Mar 5, 2026): Lok. Sofia3

Dobrudzha1

⚽ 1L (Mar 1, 2026): Levski Sofia4

Lok. Sofia3

⚽ 1L (Feb 13, 2026): Spartak Varna2

Lok. Sofia2

⚽ 1L (Feb 7, 2026): Lok. Sofia1

Ludogorets3

⚽ CF (Jan 30, 2026): Lok. Sofia1

Svoge0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Sunday, 8th March 2026, CSKA Sofia host Lok Sofia in Bulgaria EFBET League. Our analysis desk recommends CSKA Sofia to win as the standout selection.

CSKA Sofia arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Lok Sofia are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 1D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour CSKA Sofia, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Lok Sofia's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: cska sofia to win at odds of 1.45 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 8 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for CSKA Sofia vs Lok Sofia?

Our selection is 1 — CSKA Sofia to win, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 55%.

What is CSKA Sofia's current form?

CSKA Sofia have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

How has Lok Sofia been performing recently?

Lok Sofia have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

CSKA Sofia lead with 4 wins versus Lok Sofia's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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