WON Case WON Flamengo SP 1-0 Paulinia FU
Fixture Case File · Ref V
F

Flamengo SP

Home Side 5W 4D 1L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-0
P
Paulinia FU
Away Side 2W 1D 5L ▲ Trending Up
CAUTION
41%
Saturday, 13th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Flamengo SP to win
Flamengo SP 50%
Draw 30%
Paulinia FU 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob71.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-30.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBF<<<<<<<<SP<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<<<<FU<<<<<<C48C7F20B4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 14 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
0
Flamengo SP
1
Draws
0
Paulinia FU
1
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Flamengo SP won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Flamengo SP
Metric
Paulinia FU
1.2
Goals For / Game
1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.5
40%
Clean Sheets
25%
5-4-1
W — D — L
2-1-5
Win Rate
50%
25%
2.2
Avg Goals
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
38%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
F0
0-0 11.1%
0-1 9.4%
0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
F1
1-0 15.0%
1-1 12.7%
1-2 5.4%
1-3 1.5%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
F2
2-0 10.1%
2-1 8.6%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
F3
3-0 4.5%
3-1 3.9%
3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
F4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(15.0%) 2-0(10.1%) 2-1(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing F=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Flamengo SP Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Paulinia FU Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Flamengo SP
Overall
6.2
Scoring
4.0
Defence
7.7
Paulinia FU
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 16%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
10.05.26PAU
Paulinia FU2
Flamengo SP2
Recent Form
Flamengo SP
07.06.26PAU
Paulinense0
Flamengo SP1
W
31.05.26PAU
Guarulhos1
Flamengo SP0
L
23.05.26PAU
Flamengo SP2
Votoraty SP1
W
16.05.26PAU
Flamengo SP2
Audax-SP1
W
10.05.26PAU
Paulinia FU2
Flamengo SP2
D
02.05.26PAU
Flamengo SP1
Paulinense0
W
25.04.26PAU
Flamengo SP2
Guarulhos0
W
18.04.26PAU
Votoraty SP1
Flamengo SP1
D
21.06.25PAU
Flamengo SP0
Guarulhos0
D
15.06.25PAU
Batatais1
Flamengo SP1
D
Paulinia FU
05.06.26PAU
Guarulhos1
Paulinia FU0
L
31.05.26PAU
Paulinia FU1
Audax-SP3
L
24.05.26PAU
Paulinense1
Paulinia FU0
L
15.05.26PAU
Votoraty SP3
Paulinia FU0
L
10.05.26PAU
Paulinia FU2
Flamengo SP2
D
03.05.26PAU
Paulinia FU3
Guarulhos0
W
26.04.26PAU
Audax-SP2
Paulinia FU0
L
19.04.26PAU
Paulinia FU2
Paulinense0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 13th June 2026, Flamengo SP host Paulinia FU in Brazil Paulista B. Our analysis desk recommends Flamengo SP to win as the standout selection.

Flamengo SP arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Paulinia FU are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 1D 5L across 8 matches.

Historical meetings favour Flamengo SP, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Paulinia FU's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: flamengo sp to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Brazil Paulista B game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.40. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 14 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Flamengo SP vs Paulinia FU?
Our selection is 1 — Flamengo SP to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 41%.
What is Flamengo SP's current form?
Flamengo SP have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Paulinia FU been performing recently?
Paulinia FU have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 8 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Flamengo SP lead with 0 wins versus Paulinia FU's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
⚠️
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