LOST Case LOST Kairat Almaty 1-1 Atyrau
Fixture Case File · Ref V
K

Kairat Almaty

Home Side
L D W D W
4W 4D 2L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-1
A
Atyrau
Away Side
D D D D W
3W 4D 3L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
47%
Saturday, 13th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Kairat Almaty to win
Kairat Almaty 50%
Draw 30%
Atyrau 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob78.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-31.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBK<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<25DB283794DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 14 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Kairat Almaty to win
1.28
Under 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Kairat Almaty vs Atyrau Competition: Kazakhstan Premier League Date: Saturday, 13th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Kairat Almaty to win) Odds: 1.28 Confidence: 47% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Ledger Ref: 25DB28379
Head to Head
Record
5
Kairat Almaty
3
Draws
2
Atyrau
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Neutral Kairat Almaty won 5 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kairat Almaty
Metric
Atyrau
1.3
Goals For / Game
1
1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheets
50%
4-4-2
W — D — L
3-4-3
Win Rate
40%
30%
2
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
K0
0-0 13.5%
0-1 13.5%
0-2 6.8%
0-3 2.3%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.1%
K1
1-0 13.5%
1-1 13.5%
1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 6.8%
2-1 6.8%
2-2 3.4%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
K3
3-0 2.3%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 1.1%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.5%) 2-0(6.8%) 2-1(6.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing K=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kairat Almaty Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Atyrau Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Kairat Almaty
Overall
5.2
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.7
Atyrau
Overall
4.2
Scoring
3.3
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 18%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 23%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
16.04.25PL
Kairat Almaty4
Atyrau0
06.04.25PL
Atyrau1
Kairat Almaty4
10.11.24PL
Atyrau0
Kairat Almaty1
08.05.24CUP
Atyrau3
Kairat Almaty1
04.05.24PL
Kairat Almaty1
Atyrau0
29.10.23PL
Atyrau0
Kairat Almaty0
07.06.23CUP
Atyrau2
Kairat Almaty1
17.05.23CUP
Kairat Almaty1
Atyrau1
05.03.23PL
Kairat Almaty2
Atyrau2
09.10.22PL
Atyrau1
Kairat Almaty2
Recent Form
Kairat Almaty
28.05.26PL
Ordabasy2
Kairat Almaty1
L
23.05.26PL
Kairat Almaty0
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
D
17.05.26PL
Zhenis1
Kairat Almaty2
W
10.05.26PL
Ulytau1
Kairat Almaty1
D
06.05.26PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
Kairat Almaty2
W
02.05.26PL
Ertis Pavlodar0
Kairat Almaty1
W
29.04.26CUP
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Kairat Almaty1
L
26.04.26PL
Kairat Almaty2
Yelimay Semey2
D
18.04.26PL
Kairat Almaty2
Kaspij Aktau0
W
11.04.26PL
Tobol1
Kairat Almaty1
D
Atyrau
28.05.26PL
Atyrau1
Tobol1
D
23.05.26PL
Zhetysu Taldykorgan0
Atyrau0
D
17.05.26PL
Aktobe1
Atyrau1
D
09.05.26PL
Okzhetpes0
Atyrau0
D
03.05.26PL
Atyrau1
Altai0
W
29.04.26CUP
Atyrau0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan2
L
26.04.26PL
FC Astana2
Atyrau1
L
19.04.26PL
Atyrau0
Kyzylzhar1
L
11.04.26PL
Atyrau2
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
W
08.04.26CUP
Jas Qyran0
Atyrau4
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 13th June 2026, Kairat Almaty host Atyrau in Kazakhstan Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Kairat Almaty to win as the standout selection.

Kairat Almaty arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Atyrau are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 4D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kairat Almaty, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Atyrau's 2, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kairat almaty to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Kazakhstan Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.28. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 14 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kairat Almaty vs Atyrau?
Our selection is 1 — Kairat Almaty to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 47%.
What is Kairat Almaty's current form?
Kairat Almaty have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Atyrau been performing recently?
Atyrau have recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kairat Almaty lead with 5 wins versus Atyrau's 2, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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