WON Case WON Holbaek 1-0 Vejgaard
Fixture Case File · Ref V
H

Holbaek

Home Side
W W W W W
10W 0D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
1-0
V
Vejgaard
Away Side
W W L L L
3W 0D 7L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
65%
Saturday, 13th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Holbaek to win
Holbaek 50%
Draw 30%
Vejgaard 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob87%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-22%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBH<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<V<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<63C2095664DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 14 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Holbaek to win
1.15
Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — No65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Holbaek vs Vejgaard Competition: Denmark 3 Division Date: Saturday, 13th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Holbaek to win) Odds: 1.15 Confidence: 65% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ledger Ref: 63C209566
Head to Head
Record
4
Holbaek
2
Draws
2
Vejgaard
8
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
63%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Neutral Holbaek won 4 of the last 8 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Holbaek
Metric
Vejgaard
3
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.9
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
10-0-0
W — D — L
3-0-7
Win Rate
100%
30%
3.2
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
H0
0-0 4.1%
0-1 3.1%
0-2 1.2%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
H1
1-0 10.0%
1-1 7.5%
1-2 2.8%
1-3 0.7%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
H2
2-0 12.2%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 3.4%
2-3 0.9%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
H3
3-0 10.0%
3-1 7.5%
3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
H4
4-0 6.1%
4-1 4.6%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
H5
5-0 3.0%
5-1 2.3%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(12.2%) 1-0(10.0%) 3-0(10.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing H=Home goals ↓   V=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Holbaek Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Vejgaard Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Holbaek
Overall
10.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.7
Vejgaard
Overall
3.0
Scoring
2.7
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 50%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 39%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.05.263D
Vejgaard0
Holbaek2
15.11.253D
Vejgaard3
Holbaek1
11.10.253D
Holbaek2
Vejgaard2
21.10.233D
Vejgaard2
Holbaek2
30.09.233D
Holbaek2
Vejgaard0
20.06.202DIV
Holbaek3
Vejgaard2
17.06.172DIV
Vejgaard2
Holbaek1
23.04.172DIV
Holbaek3
Vejgaard0
Recent Form
Holbaek
04.06.263D
Sundby1
Holbaek5
W
30.05.263D
Holbaek2
Lyseng1
W
23.05.263D
BK Frem1
Holbaek3
W
16.05.263D
Holbaek4
Odder2
W
09.05.263D
Vejgaard0
Holbaek2
W
02.05.263D
Holbaek2
Sundby0
W
25.04.263D
Holbaek4
BK Frem1
W
18.04.263D
Lyseng0
Holbaek2
W
11.04.263D
Odder1
Holbaek4
W
06.04.263D
Bronshoj0
Holbaek2
W
Vejgaard
05.06.263D
Vejgaard2
Lyseng0
W
30.05.263D
Vejgaard2
BK Frem0
W
22.05.263D
Odder2
Vejgaard0
L
16.05.263D
Vejgaard0
Sundby1
L
09.05.263D
Vejgaard0
Holbaek2
L
02.05.263D
Lyseng2
Vejgaard1
L
26.04.263D
Vejgaard3
Odder0
W
18.04.263D
BK Frem5
Vejgaard0
L
11.04.263D
Sundby2
Vejgaard0
L
06.04.263D
Nykobing5
Vejgaard0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 13th June 2026, Holbaek host Vejgaard in Denmark 3 Division. Our analysis desk recommends Holbaek to win as the standout selection.

Holbaek arrive in strong form, having recorded 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Vejgaard are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 0D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Holbaek, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Vejgaard's 2, with 2 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 63% of those meetings.

Our verdict: holbaek to win at odds of 1.15 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Denmark 3 Division game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.15. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 14 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Holbaek vs Vejgaard?
Our selection is 1 — Holbaek to win, priced at approximately 1.15. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is Holbaek's current form?
Holbaek have won 10, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vejgaard been performing recently?
Vejgaard have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Holbaek lead with 4 wins versus Vejgaard's 2, with 2 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 63%.
⚠️
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