LOST Case LOST ML Vitebsk 1-2 Vitebsk
Fixture Case File · Ref V
M

ML Vitebsk

Home Side
W D W W W
6W 2D 2L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-2
V
Vitebsk
Away Side
L L D L D
2W 4D 4L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
66%
Saturday, 13th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on ML Vitebsk to win
ML Vitebsk 50%
Draw 30%
Vitebsk 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob73.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-7.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBML<V<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<V<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<D0CDA1F214DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 14 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
7
ML Vitebsk
0
Draws
0
Vitebsk
7
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
14%
BTTS
43%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing ML Vitebsk won 7 of the last 7 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
ML Vitebsk
Metric
Vitebsk
1.9
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.2
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
60%
20%
2.4
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
M0
0-0 9.5%
0-1 7.6%
0-2 3.1%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
M1
1-0 14.8%
1-1 11.8%
1-2 4.7%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.0%
M2
2-0 11.5%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
M3
3-0 5.9%
3-1 4.7%
3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
M4
4-0 2.3%
4-1 1.8%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.8%) 2-0(11.5%) 2-1(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing M=Home goals ↓   V=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
ML Vitebsk Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Vitebsk Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
ML Vitebsk
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
7.3
Vitebsk
Overall
3.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Home Win & BTTS No 33%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 33%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 16%
Away Win & Over 2.5 7%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
26.10.25VL
Vitebsk0
ML Vitebsk1
31.05.25VL
ML Vitebsk2
Vitebsk0
07.10.23PL
ML Vitebsk0
Vitebsk4
04.06.23PL
Vitebsk1
ML Vitebsk0
21.06.22CUP
ML Vitebsk2
Vitebsk (AET)3
29.10.05PL
ML Vitebsk0
Vitebsk7
16.07.05PL
Vitebsk2
ML Vitebsk0
Recent Form
ML Vitebsk
30.05.26VL
Neman1
ML Vitebsk2
W
22.05.26VL
ML Vitebsk0
FC Gomel0
D
17.05.26VL
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0
ML Vitebsk3
W
10.05.26VL
ML Vitebsk5
Dnepr Mogilev1
W
03.05.26VL
Din. Minsk2
ML Vitebsk3
W
29.04.26CUP
Din. Minsk1
ML Vitebsk0
L
25.04.26VL
ML Vitebsk0
Dynamo Brest0
D
19.04.26VL
BATE1
ML Vitebsk2
W
15.04.26CUP
ML Vitebsk0
Din. Minsk2
L
11.04.26VL
Baranovici0
ML Vitebsk4
W
Vitebsk
31.05.26VL
Vitebsk2
Baranovici3
L
23.05.26VL
Isloch3
Vitebsk0
L
17.05.26VL
Zhodino1
Vitebsk1
D
09.05.26VL
Belshina1
Vitebsk0
L
03.05.26VL
Vitebsk0
Slavia Mozyr0
D
25.04.26VL
Naftan1
Vitebsk1
D
18.04.26VL
Vitebsk2
FC Minsk0
W
11.04.26VL
Vitebsk1
BATE0
W
04.04.26VL
Neman2
Vitebsk0
L
20.03.26VL
Vitebsk1
FC Gomel1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 13th June 2026, ML Vitebsk host Vitebsk in Belarus Vysshaya Liga. Our analysis desk recommends ML Vitebsk to win as the standout selection.

ML Vitebsk arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Vitebsk are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour ML Vitebsk, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Vitebsk's 0, with 0 draws from 7 encounters. Both teams have scored in 14% of those meetings.

Our verdict: ml vitebsk to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Belarus Vysshaya Liga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.36. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 14 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for ML Vitebsk vs Vitebsk?
Our selection is 1 — ML Vitebsk to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is ML Vitebsk's current form?
ML Vitebsk have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vitebsk been performing recently?
Vitebsk have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
ML Vitebsk lead with 7 wins versus Vitebsk's 0, with 0 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 14%.
⚠️
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