WON Case WON Babrungas 3-0 Zalgiris 2
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Babrungas

Home Side
D W L W W
7W 1D 2L ▼ Trending Down
VS
3-0
Z
Zalgiris 2
Away Side
D L D D W
3W 4D 3L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
51%
Friday, 15th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Babrungas to win
Babrungas 50%
Draw 30%
Zalgiris 2 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.2%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-24.2%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Z<<<<<<<<2<<<<<<<2AD3D8B1C4DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 16 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
3
Babrungas
3
Draws
4
Zalgiris 2
10
Meetings
2.9
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Babrungas won 3 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Babrungas
Metric
Zalgiris 2
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.2
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
50%
Clean Sheets
50%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-4-3
Win Rate
70%
30%
2.7
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
Z0
Z1
Z2
Z3
Z4
Z5
B0
0-0 6.7%
0-1 7.1%
0-2 3.7%
0-3 1.3%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 11.1%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 6.1%
1-3 2.1%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
B2
2-0 9.2%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
B3
3-0 5.0%
3-1 5.3%
3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 2.1%
4-1 2.2%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.1%) 2-1(9.6%) 2-0(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   Z=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Babrungas Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Zalgiris 2 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Babrungas
Overall
7.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
7.0
Zalgiris 2
Overall
4.2
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Home Win & BTTS No 34%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 34%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.07.25IL
Babrungas2
Zalgiris 21
16.03.25IL
Zalgiris 22
Babrungas2
12.08.23IL
Zalgiris 22
Babrungas1
23.03.23IL
Babrungas2
Zalgiris 20
12.10.22IL
Babrungas1
Zalgiris 20
08.04.22IL
Zalgiris 20
Babrungas0
11.09.21IL
Zalgiris 23
Babrungas3
15.05.21IL
Babrungas2
Zalgiris 23
06.08.06IL
Zalgiris 24
Babrungas0
22.04.06IL
Babrungas0
Zalgiris 21
Recent Form
Babrungas
09.05.26IL
Atmosfera1
Babrungas1
D
01.05.26IL
Babrungas4
BFA Vilnius0
W
28.04.26CUP
BFA Vilnius1
Babrungas0
L
24.04.26IL
Babrungas1
Garliava0
W
18.04.26IL
Tauras Taurage1
Babrungas2
W
04.04.26IL
Babrungas1
Neptunas0
W
22.03.26IL
Babrungas3
Dainava Alytus1
W
18.03.26IL
Babrungas3
Transinvest 20
W
14.03.26IL
Ekranas0
Babrungas3
W
09.11.25IL
Babrungas1
Siauliai 25
L
Zalgiris 2
08.05.26IL
Zalgiris 22
Tauras Taurage2
D
02.05.26IL
Neptunas2
Zalgiris 21
L
24.04.26IL
Zalgiris 20
Dainava Alytus0
D
19.04.26IL
Transinvest 22
Zalgiris 22
D
12.04.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
Zalgiris 21
W
03.04.26IL
Zalgiris 24
Siauliai 20
W
17.03.26IL
Zalgiris 21
Ekranas0
W
14.03.26IL
FK Minija4
Zalgiris 20
L
09.11.25IL
Transinvest4
Zalgiris 21
L
31.10.25IL
Zalgiris 20
Jonava0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 15th May 2026, Babrungas host Zalgiris 2 in Lithuania 1 Lyga. Our analysis desk recommends Babrungas to win as the standout selection.

Babrungas arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Zalgiris 2 are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 4D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Babrungas, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Zalgiris 2's 4, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: babrungas to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Lithuania 1 Lyga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.33. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 16 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Babrungas vs Zalgiris 2?
Our selection is 1 — Babrungas to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 51%.
What is Babrungas's current form?
Babrungas have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Zalgiris 2 been performing recently?
Zalgiris 2 have recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Babrungas lead with 3 wins versus Zalgiris 2's 4, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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