WON Case WON Fenerbahce 4-1 Gaziantep

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Fenerbahce

Q: What is the recommended bet for Fenerbahce vs Gaziantep?

Our selection is 1 — Fenerbahce to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 77%.

Q: What is Fenerbahce's current form?

Fenerbahce have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Gaziantep been performing recently?

Gaziantep have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Fenerbahce lead with 5 wins versus Gaziantep's 0, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

Home Side

L W W D W

4W 0D 1L ▲ Trending Up

4-1

Gaziantep

Away Side

W D L D L

1W 2D 2L ▼ Trending Down

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CASE VERIFIED

77%

Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Fenerbahce to win

Implied Prob79.4%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-2.4%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBF<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<0355112BF4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 17 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Fenerbahce to win

1.26

Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes70%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Fenerbahce vs Gaziantep Competition: Turkey Super Lig Date: Tuesday, 17th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Fenerbahce to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 77% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: 0355112BF

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Head to Head

Record

Fenerbahce

Draws

Gaziantep

Meetings

4.2

Avg Goals

60%

BTTS

100%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Fenerbahce won 5 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Fenerbahce

Metric

Gaziantep

1.6

Goals For / Game

1.2

Goals Against / Game

1.6

Clean Sheets

20%

4-0-1

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate

80%

20%

2.8

Avg Goals

90%

Over 1.5

70%

Over 2.5

70%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 6.1%

0-1 7.3%

0-2 4.4%

0-3 1.8%

0-4 0.5%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 9.7%

1-1 11.7%

1-2 7.0%

1-3 2.8%

1-4 0.8%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 7.8%

2-1 9.3%

2-2 5.6%

2-3 2.2%

2-4 0.7%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 4.2%

3-1 5.0%

3-2 3.0%

3-3 1.2%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 1.7%

4-1 2.0%

4-2 1.2%

4-3 0.5%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.5%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.4%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(9.7%) 2-1(9.3%) 2-0(7.8%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing F=Home goals ↓ G=Away →

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Team Ratings

Grades

Fenerbahce

Overall

8.0 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

6.0 —

Gaziantep

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

4.0 —

Defence

4.7 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 47%

Home Win & BTTS No 20%

Draw & BTTS Yes 12%

Draw & BTTS No 5%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Away Win & BTTS No 5%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 47%

Home Win & Under 2.5 20%

Draw & Over 2.5 12%

Draw & Under 2.5 5%

Away Win & Over 2.5 11%

Away Win & Under 2.5 5%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

04.03.26

CUP: Gaziantep0

Fenerbahce4

27.10.25

SL: Gaziantep0

Fenerbahce4

26.04.25

SL: Gaziantep1

Fenerbahce3

27.02.25

CUP: Gaziantep1

Fenerbahce4

02.12.24

SL: Fenerbahce3

Gaziantep1

Recent Form

Fenerbahce

13.03.26

SL: Karagumruk2

Fenerbahce0

19.10.25

SL: Fenerbahce2

Karagumruk1

14.04.24

SL: Karagumruk1

Fenerbahce2

26.11.23

SL: Fenerbahce2

Karagumruk1

10.04.23

SL: Karagumruk1

Fenerbahce2

Gaziantep

13.03.26

SL: Antalyaspor1

Gaziantep4

08.03.26

SL: Gaziantep1

Karagumruk1

04.03.26

CUP: Gaziantep0

Fenerbahce4

01.03.26

SL: Samsunspor0

Gaziantep0

22.02.26

SL: Gaziantep1

Trabzonspor2

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 17th March 2026, Fenerbahce host Gaziantep in Turkey Super Lig. Our analysis desk recommends Fenerbahce to win as the standout selection.

Fenerbahce arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Gaziantep are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Fenerbahce, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Gaziantep's 0, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fenerbahce to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 17 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Fenerbahce vs Gaziantep?

Our selection is 1 — Fenerbahce to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 77%.

What is Fenerbahce's current form?

Fenerbahce have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Gaziantep been performing recently?

Gaziantep have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Fenerbahce lead with 5 wins versus Gaziantep's 0, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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