WON Case WON London City Lionesses W 0-2 Arsenal W

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

London City Lionesses W

Q: What is the recommended bet for London City Lionesses W vs Arsenal W?

Our selection is 2 — Arsenal W to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 78%.

Q: What is London City Lionesses W's current form?

London City Lionesses W have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Arsenal W been performing recently?

Arsenal W have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

London City Lionesses W lead with 0 wins versus Arsenal W's 5, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

Home Side

L L L W L

2W 1D 2L ▲ Trending Up

0-2

Arsenal W

Away Side

W W W W W

5W 0D 0L → Holding Steady

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CASE VERIFIED

78%

Sunday, 15th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Arsenal W to win

London City Lionesses W 20%

Draw 20%

Arsenal W 60%

H Fair Odds5

D Fair Odds5

A Fair Odds1.67

Implied Prob80%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-2%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBL<<<<<<C<<<<L<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<69ADF58D64DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 15 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

2 — Arsenal W to win

1.25

Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals80% Arsenal W Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

London City Lionesses W vs Arsenal W Competition: WSL Date: Sunday, 15th March 2026 Pick: 2 (Arsenal W to win) Odds: 1.25 Confidence: 78% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: Arsenal W Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 69ADF58D6

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Head to Head

Record

London City Lionesses W

Draws

Arsenal W

Meetings

3.2

Avg Goals

20%

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Arsenal W won 5 of 5 meetings.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

London City Lionesses W

Metric

Arsenal W

1.4

Goals For / Game

2.8

1.4

Goals Against / Game

0.6

Clean Sheets

60%

2-1-2

W — D — L

5-0-0

Win Rate

40%

100%

3.1

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

80%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 4.5%

0-1 9.5%

0-2 9.9%

0-3 7.0%

0-4 3.7%

0-5 1.5%

1-0 4.5%

1-1 9.5%

1-2 9.9%

1-3 7.0%

1-4 3.7%

1-5 1.5%

2-0 2.3%

2-1 4.7%

2-2 5.0%

2-3 3.5%

2-4 1.8%

2-5 0.8%

3-0 0.8%

3-1 1.6%

3-2 1.7%

3-3 1.2%

3-4 0.6%

3-5 0.3%

4-0 0.2%

4-1 0.4%

4-2 0.4%

4-3 0.3%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.0%

5-1 0.1%

5-2 0.1%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 0-2(9.9%) 1-2(9.9%) 0-1(9.5%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing L=Home goals ↓ A=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

London City Lionesses W Win

20%

Draw

20%

Arsenal W Win

60%

1.67

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

London City Lionesses W

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

4.7 —

Defence

5.3 —

Arsenal W

Overall

10.0 ▼

Scoring

9.3 ▼

Defence

8.0 ▼

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 16%

Home Win & BTTS No 11%

Draw & BTTS Yes 4%

Draw & BTTS No 3%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 40%

Away Win & BTTS No 26%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 22%

Home Win & Under 2.5 5%

Draw & Over 2.5 6%

Draw & Under 2.5 1%

Away Win & Over 2.5 53%

Away Win & Under 2.5 13%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

06.09.25

WSL: Arsenal W4

London City Lionesses1

09.02.25

FAC: Arsenal W2

London City Lionesses0

14.02.24

CUP: London City Lionesses W0

Arsenal4

30.01.22

FAC: Arsenal W1

London City Lionesses0

04.11.20

CUP: London City Lionesses W0

Arsenal4

Recent Form

London City Lionesses W

23.02.26

FAC: London City Lionesses W2

Tottenham Hotspur2

15.02.26

WSL: Manchester United W2

London City Lionesses1

08.02.26

WSL: London City Lionesses W0

Everton1

01.02.26

WSL: Brighton W1

London City Lionesses2

25.01.26

WSL: London City Lionesses W1

Manchester City2

Arsenal W

22.02.26

FAC: Arsenal W3

Bristol City0

18.02.26

UCL: Arsenal W3

OH Leuven1

11.02.26

UCL: OH Leuven W0

Arsenal4

08.02.26

WSL: Arsenal W1

Manchester City0

01.02.26

WCC: Arsenal W3

Corinthians Feminino2

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Sunday, 15th March 2026, London City Lionesses W host Arsenal W in WSL. Our analysis desk recommends Arsenal W to win as the standout selection.

London City Lionesses W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Arsenal W are travelling well, with a record of 5W 0D 0L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour London City Lionesses W, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Arsenal W's 5, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: arsenal w to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 15 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for London City Lionesses W vs Arsenal W?

Our selection is 2 — Arsenal W to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 78%.

What is London City Lionesses W's current form?

London City Lionesses W have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Arsenal W been performing recently?

Arsenal W have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

London City Lionesses W lead with 0 wins versus Arsenal W's 5, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

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