WON Case WON Cherno More 1-0 Montana

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Cherno More

Q: What is the recommended bet for Cherno More vs Montana?

Our selection is 1 — Cherno More to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 43%.

Q: What is Cherno More's current form?

Cherno More have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Montana been performing recently?

Montana have recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Cherno More lead with 3 wins versus Montana's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

Home Side

W D L D D

1W 3D 1L ▼ Trending Down

1-0

Montana

Away Side

L L D L L

0W 1D 4L → Holding Steady

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CAUTION

43%

Sunday, 15th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Cherno More to win

Cherno More 50%

Draw 30%

Montana 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob71.4%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-28.4%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBC<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<2F8FE6AE64DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 15 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Cherno More to win

1.40

Under 2.5 Goals70% BTTS — No80% Cherno More Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Cherno More vs Montana Competition: Bulgaria EFBET League Date: Sunday, 15th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Cherno More to win) Odds: 1.40 Confidence: 43% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: BTTS — No (80%) Also: Cherno More Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 2F8FE6AE6

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Head to Head

Record

Cherno More

Draws

Montana

Meetings

2.8

Avg Goals

60%

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Cherno More won 3 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Cherno More

Metric

Montana

Goals For / Game

0.6

Goals Against / Game

1.2

60%

Clean Sheets

20%

1-3-1

W — D — L

0-1-4

Win Rate

20%

1.4

Avg Goals

40%

Over 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

20%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 24.7%

0-1 7.4%

0-2 1.1%

0-3 0.1%

0-4 0.0%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 27.1%

1-1 8.1%

1-2 1.2%

1-3 0.1%

1-4 0.0%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 14.9%

2-1 4.5%

2-2 0.7%

2-3 0.1%

2-4 0.0%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 5.5%

3-1 1.6%

3-2 0.3%

3-3 0.0%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 1.5%

4-1 0.5%

4-2 0.1%

4-3 0.0%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.3%

5-1 0.1%

5-2 0.0%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(27.1%) 2-0(14.9%) 3-0(5.5%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing C=Home goals ↓ M=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Cherno More Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Montana Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Cherno More

Overall

3.8 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

8.0 —

Montana

Overall

0.6 —

Scoring

0.0 —

Defence

6.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 7%

Home Win & BTTS No 26%

Draw & BTTS Yes 13%

Draw & BTTS No 54%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Away Win & BTTS No 0%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 10%

Home Win & Under 2.5 23%

Draw & Over 2.5 20%

Draw & Under 2.5 47%

Away Win & Over 2.5 0%

Away Win & Under 2.5 0%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

04.10.25

1L: Montana1

Cherno More3

20.03.21

1L: Montana1

Cherno More1

18.10.20

1L: Cherno More3

Montana0

20.09.17

CUP: Montana2

Cherno More1

26.11.16

1L: Montana0

Cherno More2

Recent Form

Cherno More

07.03.26

1L: Septemvri Sofia0

Cherno More3

04.03.26

1L: Cherno More0

Arda Kardzhali0

28.02.26

1L: Dobrudzha2

Cherno More1

20.02.26

1L: Cherno More0

Botev Vratsa0

15.02.26

1L: Lokomotiv Plovdiv1

Cherno More1

Montana

09.03.26

1L: Montana0

Ludogorets3

03.03.26

1L: Spartak Varna1

Montana0

27.02.26

1L: Montana0

Botev Plovdiv0

21.02.26

1L: Dobrudzha1

Montana0

16.02.26

1L: Septemvri Sofia1

Montana0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Sunday, 15th March 2026, Cherno More host Montana in Bulgaria EFBET League. Our analysis desk recommends Cherno More to win as the standout selection.

Cherno More arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Montana are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 1D 4L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Cherno More, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Montana's 1, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: cherno more to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 15 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Cherno More vs Montana?

Our selection is 1 — Cherno More to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 43%.

What is Cherno More's current form?

Cherno More have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Montana been performing recently?

Montana have recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Cherno More lead with 3 wins versus Montana's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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