WON Case WON AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

AZ Alkmaar

Q: What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?

Our selection is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 50%.

Q: What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?

AZ Alkmaar have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Heracles been performing recently?

Heracles have recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

AZ Alkmaar lead with 2 wins versus Heracles's 2, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

Home Side

W L W L W

3W 0D 2L → Holding Steady

4-0

Heracles

Away Side

D L L L L

0W 1D 4L → Holding Steady

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MODERATE

50%

Sunday, 15th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on AZ Alkmaar to win

AZ Alkmaar 50%

Draw 30%

Heracles 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob71.4%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-21.4%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBAZ<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<H<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<1D79D8C264DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 15 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — AZ Alkmaar to win

1.40

Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles Competition: Eredivisie Date: Sunday, 15th March 2026 Pick: 1 (AZ Alkmaar to win) Odds: 1.40 Confidence: 50% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: 1D79D8C26

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Head to Head

Record

AZ Alkmaar

Draws

Heracles

Meetings

2.8

Avg Goals

40%

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

Against Filing AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

AZ Alkmaar

Metric

Heracles

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.4

1.2

Goals Against / Game

2.4

20%

Clean Sheets

20%

3-0-2

W — D — L

0-1-4

Win Rate

60%

2.9

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

70%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 5.5%

0-1 4.4%

0-2 1.8%

0-3 0.5%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 11.6%

1-1 9.2%

1-2 3.7%

1-3 1.0%

1-4 0.2%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 12.1%

2-1 9.7%

2-2 3.9%

2-3 1.0%

2-4 0.2%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 8.5%

3-1 6.8%

3-2 2.7%

3-3 0.7%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 4.5%

4-1 3.6%

4-2 1.4%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.9%

5-1 1.5%

5-2 0.6%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 2-0(12.1%) 1-0(11.6%) 2-1(9.7%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓ H=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

AZ Alkmaar Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Heracles Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

AZ Alkmaar

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

6.0 —

Heracles

Overall

0.6 —

Scoring

1.3 —

Defence

2.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 43%

Home Win & BTTS No 43%

Draw & BTTS Yes 7%

Draw & BTTS No 7%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Away Win & BTTS No 0%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 60%

Home Win & Under 2.5 26%

Draw & Over 2.5 10%

Draw & Under 2.5 4%

Away Win & Over 2.5 0%

Away Win & Under 2.5 0%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

4.09.25

ERE: Heracles1

AZ Alkmaar2

13.04.25

ERE: Heracles1

AZ Alkmaar0

27.02.25

KNVB: Heracles2

AZ Alkmaar2

01.12.24

ERE: AZ Alkmaar1

Heracles0

03.04.24

ERE: Heracles5

AZ Alkmaar0

Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar

12.03.26

UCL: AZ Alkmaar2

Sparta Prague1

07.03.26

ERE: PSV Eindhoven2

AZ Alkmaar1

04.03.26

KNVB: AZ Alkmaar2

Telstar1

01.03.26

ERE: FC Utrecht2

AZ Alkmaar0

26.02.26

UCL: AZ Alkmaar4

FC Noah0

Heracles

06.03.26

ERE: Heracles0

FC Utrecht0

28.02.26

ERE: Heracles1

PSV Eindhoven3

22.02.26

ERE: Go Ahead Eagles4

Heracles0

14.02.26

ERE: Heracles0

NAC Breda1

07.02.26

ERE: NEC Nijmegen4

Heracles1

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Sunday, 15th March 2026, AZ Alkmaar host Heracles in Eredivisie. Our analysis desk recommends AZ Alkmaar to win as the standout selection.

AZ Alkmaar arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Heracles are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 1D 4L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour AZ Alkmaar, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Heracles's 2, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: az alkmaar to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 15 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?

Our selection is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 50%.

What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?

AZ Alkmaar have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Heracles been performing recently?

Heracles have recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

AZ Alkmaar lead with 2 wins versus Heracles's 2, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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