LOST Case LOST Erokspor 1-1 Bandirmaspor
Fixture Case File · Ref V
E

Erokspor

Home Side
W W W W W
5W 0D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
1-1
B
Bandirmaspor
Away Side
W W W L L
3W 0D 2L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
58%
Thursday, 12th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Erokspor to win
Erokspor 50%
Draw 20%
Bandirmaspor 30%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds3.33
Implied Prob73%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-15%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBE<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<6AAAB52D24DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Erokspor to win
1.37
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Erokspor vs Bandirmaspor Competition: Turkey 1LIG Date: Thursday, 12th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Erokspor to win) Odds: 1.37 Confidence: 58% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ledger Ref: 6AAAB52D2
Head to Head
Record
0
Erokspor
2
Draws
1
Bandirmaspor
3
Meetings
1
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Erokspor won 0 of the last 3 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Erokspor
Metric
Bandirmaspor
3.2
Goals For / Game
1.8
1
Goals Against / Game
1.4
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
5-0-0
W — D — L
3-0-2
Win Rate
100%
60%
3.7
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
E0
0-0 2.5%
0-1 3.5%
0-2 2.4%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
E1
1-0 5.7%
1-1 8.0%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.6%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.3%
E2
2-0 6.5%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 3.0%
2-4 1.1%
2-5 0.3%
E3
3-0 5.0%
3-1 7.0%
3-2 4.9%
3-3 2.3%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.2%
E4
4-0 2.9%
4-1 4.0%
4-2 2.8%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.1%
E5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.9%
5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.6%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(9.2%) 3-1(7.0%) 2-0(6.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing E=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Erokspor Win
50%
2
Draw
20%
5
Bandirmaspor Win
30%
3.33
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Erokspor
Overall
10.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.7
Bandirmaspor
Overall
6.0
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 50%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 30%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
⚽ 1LIG (26.10.25): Bandirmaspor0
Erokspor0
⚽ 1LIG (27.04.25): Bandirmaspor1
Erokspor0
⚽ 1LIG (22.12.24): Erokspor1
Bandirmaspor1
Recent Form
Erokspor
⚽ 1LIG (08.03.26): Bodrumspor3
Erokspor4
⚽ 1LIG (27.02.26): Erokspor2
Boluspor0
⚽ 1LIG (21.02.26): Igdir FK0
Erokspor3
⚽ 1LIG (17.02.26): Istanbulspor AS1
Erokspor4
⚽ 1LIG (13.02.26): Erokspor3
Manisa FK1
Bandirmaspor
⚽ 1LIG (07.03.26): Bandirmaspor1
Istanbulspor AS0
⚽ 1LIG (01.03.26): Umraniyespor1
Bandirmaspor2
⚽ 1LIG (22.02.26): Bandirmaspor4
Hatayspor0
⚽ 1LIG (18.02.26): Manisa FK3
Bandirmaspor2
⚽ 1LIG (14.02.26): Bandirmaspor0
Serik Spor3
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 12th March 2026, Erokspor host Bandirmaspor in Turkey 1LIG. Our analysis desk recommends Erokspor to win as the standout selection.

Erokspor arrive in strong form, having recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Bandirmaspor are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 0D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Erokspor, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Bandirmaspor's 1, with 2 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: erokspor to win at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 12 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Erokspor vs Bandirmaspor?
Our selection is 1 — Erokspor to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Erokspor's current form?
Erokspor have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.
How has Bandirmaspor been performing recently?
Bandirmaspor have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Erokspor lead with 0 wins versus Bandirmaspor's 1, with 2 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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