LOST Case LOST Qatar SC 2-0 Al Gharafa

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Qatar SC

Q: What is the recommended bet for Qatar SC vs Al Gharafa?

Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 91%.

Q: What is Qatar SC's current form?

Qatar SC have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Al Gharafa been performing recently?

Al Gharafa have recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Qatar SC lead with 2 wins versus Al Gharafa's 3, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

Home Side

W L D W L

2W 2D 1L → Holding Steady

2-0

Al Gharafa

Away Side

W L L W L

2W 0D 3L → Holding Steady

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CASE VERIFIED

91%

Thursday, 12th March 2026 Case Verdict

Over 2.5

Filing on over 2.5 goals

Implied Prob69%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge+22%Value detected

Kelly %71%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBQ<<<<<SC<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<A2B05AC684DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals

1.45

Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Qatar SC vs Al Gharafa Competition: Qatar QSL Date: Thursday, 12th March 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.45 Confidence: 91% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ledger Ref: A2B05AC68

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Head to Head

Record

Qatar SC

Draws

Al Gharafa

Meetings

4.6

Avg Goals

100%

BTTS

100%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Qatar SC

Metric

Al Gharafa

2.6

Goals For / Game

2.2

Goals Against / Game

2.4

Clean Sheets

20%

2-2-1

W — D — L

2-0-3

Win Rate

40%

4.1

Avg Goals

90%

Over 1.5

70%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 1.7%

0-1 2.7%

0-2 2.1%

0-3 1.1%

0-4 0.5%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 4.1%

1-1 6.6%

1-2 5.3%

1-3 2.8%

1-4 1.1%

1-5 0.4%

2-0 5.2%

2-1 8.3%

2-2 6.6%

2-3 3.5%

2-4 1.4%

2-5 0.5%

3-0 4.3%

3-1 6.9%

3-2 5.5%

3-3 3.0%

3-4 1.2%

3-5 0.4%

4-0 2.7%

4-1 4.3%

4-2 3.5%

4-3 1.8%

4-4 0.7%

4-5 0.2%

5-0 1.4%

5-1 2.2%

5-2 1.7%

5-3 0.9%

5-4 0.4%

5-5 0.1%

Top Scores 2-1(8.3%) 3-1(6.9%) 1-1(6.6%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing Q=Home goals ↓ A=Away →

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Team Ratings

Grades

Qatar SC

Overall

5.2 —

Scoring

8.7 —

Defence

2.7 —

Al Gharafa

Overall

4.0 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

2.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Home Win & BTTS No 16%

Draw & BTTS Yes 12%

Draw & BTTS No 8%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Away Win & BTTS No 16%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 28%

Home Win & Under 2.5 12%

Draw & Over 2.5 14%

Draw & Under 2.5 6%

Away Win & Over 2.5 28%

Away Win & Under 2.5 12%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ QSC (19.01.26): Qatar SC3

Al-Gharafa2

⚽ QSL (07.11.25): Al-Gharafa2

Qatar SC1

⚽ QSL (22.02.25): Al-Gharafa4

Qatar SC2

⚽ QSL (22.09.24): Qatar SC1

Al-Gharafa3

⚽ EMI (19.05.24): Al-Gharafa2

Qatar SC3

Recent Form

Qatar SC

⚽ QSL (20.02.26): Al-Shahaniya3

Qatar SC4

⚽ EMI (13.02.26): Al-Shamal2

Qatar SC1

⚽ QSL (06.02.26): Qatar SC3

Al Rayyan3

⚽ QSL (31.01.26): Al Ahli Doha1

Qatar SC3

⚽ QSC (26.01.26): Al Arabi2

Qatar SC (12-11)2

Al Gharafa

⚽ QSL (26.02.26): Al-Gharafa3

Al Rayyan2

⚽ QSL (22.02.26): Al-Gharafa0

Al-Shamal1

⚽ CL (17.02.26): Al-Gharafa0

Tractor2

⚽ EMI (14.02.26): Al-Gharafa2

Al-Kharitiyath0

⚽ CL (10.02.26): Al Ittihad7

Al-Gharafa0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Thursday, 12th March 2026, Qatar SC host Al Gharafa in Qatar QSL. Our analysis desk recommends over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Qatar SC arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Al Gharafa are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 0D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Qatar SC, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Al Gharafa's 3, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.45 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 12 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Qatar SC vs Al Gharafa?

Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 91%.

What is Qatar SC's current form?

Qatar SC have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Al Gharafa been performing recently?

Al Gharafa have recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Qatar SC lead with 2 wins versus Al Gharafa's 3, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

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