WON Case WON AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Sparta Prague

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

AZ Alkmaar

Q: What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague?

Our selection is 1X — AZ Alkmaar to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 90%.

Q: What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?

AZ Alkmaar have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Sparta Prague been performing recently?

Sparta Prague have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

No recent head-to-head data available.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game.

Home Side

L W L W W

3W 0D 2L → Holding Steady

2-1

Sparta Prague

Away Side

L L W D W

2W 1D 2L ▲ Trending Up

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CASE VERIFIED

90%

Thursday, 12th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on AZ Alkmaar to win or draw

AZ Alkmaar 70%

Draw 20%

Sparta Prague 10%

H Fair Odds1.43

D Fair Odds5

A Fair Odds10

Implied Prob78.1%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge+11.9%Value detected

Kelly %54.3%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBAZ<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<<<<P<<<<<<<<<7E5FB19A34DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1X — AZ Alkmaar to win or draw

1.28

Over 1.5 Goals80%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague Competition: UEFA Europa League Date: Thursday, 12th March 2026 Pick: 1X (AZ Alkmaar to win or draw) Odds: 1.28 Confidence: 90% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: 7E5FB19A3

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Head to Head

Record

Neutral Insufficient H2H data.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

AZ Alkmaar

Metric

Sparta Prague

Goals For / Game

1.6

1.2

Goals Against / Game

1.2

20%

Clean Sheets

40%

3-0-2

W — D — L

2-1-2

Win Rate

60%

40%

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

60%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 5.0%

0-1 7.0%

0-2 4.9%

0-3 2.3%

0-4 0.8%

0-5 0.2%

1-0 8.0%

1-1 11.2%

1-2 7.8%

1-3 3.6%

1-4 1.3%

1-5 0.4%

2-0 6.4%

2-1 8.9%

2-2 6.3%

2-3 2.9%

2-4 1.0%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 3.4%

3-1 4.8%

3-2 3.3%

3-3 1.6%

3-4 0.5%

3-5 0.2%

4-0 1.4%

4-1 1.9%

4-2 1.3%

4-3 0.6%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.4%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.4%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-1(11.2%) 2-1(8.9%) 1-0(8.0%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓ S=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

AZ Alkmaar Win

70%

1.43

Draw

20%

Sparta Prague Win

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

AZ Alkmaar

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

6.7 —

Defence

6.0 —

Sparta Prague

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

6.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%

Home Win & BTTS No 28%

Draw & BTTS Yes 5%

Draw & BTTS No 5%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Away Win & BTTS No 18%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 33%

Home Win & Under 2.5 22%

Draw & Over 2.5 5%

Draw & Under 2.5 4%

Away Win & Over 2.5 22%

Away Win & Under 2.5 14%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar

⚽ ERE (07.03.26): PSV2

AZ Alkmaar1

⚽ KNV (04.03.26): AZ Alkmaar2

Telstar1

⚽ ERE (01.03.26): Utrecht2

AZ Alkmaar0

⚽ UECL (26.02.26): AZ Alkmaar4

FC Noah0

⚽ ERE (22.02.26): AZ Alkmaar3

Sparta Rotterdam1

Sparta Prague

⚽ 1L (08.03.26): Slavia Prague3

Sparta Prague1

⚽ CUP (03.03.26): Mlada Boleslav1

Sparta Prague (4-2)0

⚽ 1L (28.02.26): Sparta Prague5

Ostrava2

⚽ 1L (22.02.26): Viktoria Plzeň0

Sparta Prague0

⚽ 1L (15.02.26): Sparta Prague2

Hradec Kralove0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Thursday, 12th March 2026, AZ Alkmaar host Sparta Prague in UEFA Europa League. Our analysis desk recommends AZ Alkmaar to win or draw as the standout selection.

AZ Alkmaar arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Sparta Prague are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 1D 2L across 5 matches.

Our verdict: az alkmaar to win or draw at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 12 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague?

Our selection is 1X — AZ Alkmaar to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 90%.

What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?

AZ Alkmaar have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Sparta Prague been performing recently?

Sparta Prague have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

No recent head-to-head data available.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game.

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