WON Case WON ACF Fiorentina 2-1 Rakow

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

ACF Fiorentina

Q: What is the recommended bet for ACF Fiorentina vs Rakow?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 84%.

Q: What is ACF Fiorentina's current form?

ACF Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Rakow been performing recently?

Rakow have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

No recent head-to-head data available.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game.

Home Side

D L L W W

2W 1D 2L ▲ Trending Up

2-1

Rakow

Away Side

W W L W D

3W 1D 1L ▼ Trending Down

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CASE VERIFIED

84%

Thursday, 12th March 2026 Case Verdict

Over 1.5

Filing on over 1.5 goals

Implied Prob78.1%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge+5.9%Value detected

Kelly %26.9%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBACF<F<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<R<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<CFD29DEE84DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals

1.28

BTTS — No70% ACF Fiorentina Clean Sheet60% Rakow Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

ACF Fiorentina vs Rakow Competition: UEFA Conference League Date: Thursday, 12th March 2026 Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.28 Confidence: 84% Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: ACF Fiorentina Clean Sheet (60%) Also: Rakow Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: CFD29DEE8

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Head to Head

Record

Neutral No head-to-head data found.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

ACF Fiorentina

Metric

Rakow

1.2

Goals For / Game

1.6

1.4

Goals Against / Game

60%

Clean Sheets

60%

2-1-2

W — D — L

3-1-1

Win Rate

40%

60%

2.6

Avg Goals

60%

Over 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

30%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 7.4%

0-1 11.1%

0-2 8.4%

0-3 4.2%

0-4 1.6%

0-5 0.5%

1-0 8.2%

1-1 12.3%

1-2 9.2%

1-3 4.6%

1-4 1.7%

1-5 0.5%

2-0 4.5%

2-1 6.7%

2-2 5.1%

2-3 2.5%

2-4 1.0%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 1.7%

3-1 2.5%

3-2 1.9%

3-3 0.9%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 0.5%

4-1 0.7%

4-2 0.5%

4-3 0.3%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.1%

5-1 0.2%

5-2 0.1%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-1(12.3%) 0-1(11.1%) 1-2(9.2%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓ R=Away →

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Team Ratings

Grades

ACF Fiorentina

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

4.0 —

Defence

5.3 —

Rakow

Overall

6.6 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

6.7 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 10%

Home Win & BTTS No 23%

Draw & BTTS Yes 5%

Draw & BTTS No 12%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%

Away Win & BTTS No 35%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 17%

Home Win & Under 2.5 17%

Draw & Over 2.5 9%

Draw & Under 2.5 9%

Away Win & Over 2.5 25%

Away Win & Under 2.5 25%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form

ACF Fiorentina

⚽ SA (08.03.26): Fiorentina0

Parma0

⚽ SA (02.03.26): Udinese3

Fiorentina0

⚽ UECL (26.02.26): Fiorentina2

Jagiellonia (5-4)4

⚽ SA (23.02.26): Fiorentina1

Pisa0

⚽ UECL (19.02.26): Jagiellonia0

Fiorentina3

Rakow

⚽ EKS (08.03.26): Rakow2

Pogon Szczecin0

⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Avia Swidnik1

Rakow (AET)2

⚽ EKS (01.03.26): Lech Poznan4

Rakow3

⚽ EKS (21.02.26): Rakow1

Termalica B-B.0

⚽ EKS (14.02.26): Zaglebie0

Rakow0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Thursday, 12th March 2026, ACF Fiorentina host Rakow in UEFA Conference League. Our analysis desk recommends over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

ACF Fiorentina arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Rakow are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 1D 1L across 5 matches.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 12 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for ACF Fiorentina vs Rakow?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 84%.

What is ACF Fiorentina's current form?

ACF Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Rakow been performing recently?

Rakow have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

No recent head-to-head data available.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game.

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