WON Case WON Celta Vigo 1-1 Lyon

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Celta Vigo

Q: What is the recommended bet for Celta Vigo vs Lyon?

Our selection is 1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 80%.

Q: What is Celta Vigo's current form?

Celta Vigo have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Lyon been performing recently?

Lyon have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Celta Vigo lead with 1 wins versus Lyon's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

Home Side

L W W W W

4W 0D 1L ▲ Trending Up

1-1

Lyon

Away Side

D L L L W

1W 2D 2L ▲ Trending Up

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CASE VERIFIED

80%

Thursday, 12th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Celta Vigo to win or draw

Celta Vigo 60%

Draw 20%

Lyon 20%

H Fair Odds1.67

D Fair Odds5

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob74.1%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge+5.9%Value detected

Kelly %22.9%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBC<<<<<V<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<L<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<CB694EBAB4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw

1.35

Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes70%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Celta Vigo vs Lyon Competition: UEFA Europa League Date: Thursday, 12th March 2026 Pick: 1X (Celta Vigo to win or draw) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 80% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: CB694EBAB

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Head to Head

Record

Celta Vigo

Draws

Lyon

Meetings

Avg Goals

BTTS

Over 2.5

Neutral Insufficient H2H data.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Celta Vigo

Metric

Lyon

1.6

Goals For / Game

1.6

0.8

Goals Against / Game

1.8

40%

Clean Sheets

20%

4-0-1

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate

80%

20%

2.9

Avg Goals

90%

Over 1.5

60%

Over 2.5

70%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 5.5%

0-1 6.6%

0-2 4.0%

0-3 1.6%

0-4 0.5%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 9.4%

1-1 11.2%

1-2 6.7%

1-3 2.7%

1-4 0.8%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 8.0%

2-1 9.5%

2-2 5.7%

2-3 2.3%

2-4 0.7%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 4.5%

3-1 5.4%

3-2 3.2%

3-3 1.3%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 1.9%

4-1 2.3%

4-2 1.4%

4-3 0.6%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.7%

5-1 0.8%

5-2 0.5%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-1(11.2%) 2-1(9.5%) 1-0(9.4%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing C=Home goals ↓ L=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Celta Vigo Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Lyon Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Celta Vigo

Overall

8.0 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

7.3 —

Lyon

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

4.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 47%

Home Win & BTTS No 20%

Draw & BTTS Yes 12%

Draw & BTTS No 5%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Away Win & BTTS No 5%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 40%

Home Win & Under 2.5 27%

Draw & Over 2.5 10%

Draw & Under 2.5 7%

Away Win & Over 2.5 10%

Away Win & Under 2.5 6%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ CF (29.07.23): Celta Vigo1

Lyon0

Recent Form

Celta Vigo

⚽ LL (06.03.26): Celta Vigo1

Real Madrid2

⚽ LL (01.03.26): Girona1

Celta Vigo2

⚽ EL (26.02.26): Celta Vigo1

PAOK (3-1)0

⚽ LL (22.02.26): Celta Vigo2

Mallorca0

⚽ EL (19.02.26): PAOK1

Celta Vigo2

Lyon

⚽ L1 (08.03.26): Lyon1

Paris FC1

⚽ CDF (05.03.26): Lyon2

Lens (5-4)2

⚽ L1 (01.03.26): Marseille3

Lyon2

⚽ L1 (22.02.26): Strasbourg3

Lyon1

⚽ L1 (15.02.26): Lyon2

Nice0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Thursday, 12th March 2026, Celta Vigo host Lyon in UEFA Europa League. Our analysis desk recommends Celta Vigo to win or draw as the standout selection.

Celta Vigo arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Lyon are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Celta Vigo, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Lyon's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: celta vigo to win or draw at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 12 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Celta Vigo vs Lyon?

Our selection is 1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 80%.

What is Celta Vigo's current form?

Celta Vigo have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Lyon been performing recently?

Lyon have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Celta Vigo lead with 1 wins versus Lyon's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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