WON Case WON Young Boys 1-2 Thun

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Young Boys

Q: What is the recommended bet for Young Boys vs Thun?

Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 92%.

Q: What is Young Boys's current form?

Young Boys have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Thun been performing recently?

Thun have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Young Boys lead with 3 wins versus Thun's 2, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

Home Side

W W L W L

4W 0D 1L ▼ Trending Down

1-2

Thun

Away Side

D W W W W

4W 1D 0L ▲ Trending Up

⚑

CASE VERIFIED

92%

Sunday, 8th March 2026 Case Verdict

Over 2.5

Filing on over 2.5 goals

Implied Prob72.5%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge+19.5%Value detected

Kelly %70.9%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBY<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<T<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<06770A2974DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 8 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

⚡

Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals

1.38

Over 2.5 Goals90% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes70%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Young Boys vs Thun Competition: Swiss Super League Date: Sunday, 8th March 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 92% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (90%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: 06770A297

⚔

Head to Head

Record

Young Boys

Draws

Thun

Meetings

4.4

Avg Goals

40%

BTTS

80%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.

📊

Stats Duel

Comparison

Young Boys

Metric

Thun

Goals For / Game

2.6

Goals Against / Game

0.8

20%

Clean Sheets

40%

4-0-1

W — D — L

4-1-0

Win Rate

80%

3.7

Avg Goals

90%

Over 1.5

90%

Over 2.5

70%

BTTS Rate

🎯

Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 2.5%

0-1 4.5%

0-2 4.0%

0-3 2.4%

0-4 1.1%

0-5 0.4%

1-0 4.7%

1-1 8.5%

1-2 7.6%

1-3 4.6%

1-4 2.1%

1-5 0.7%

2-0 4.5%

2-1 8.0%

2-2 7.2%

2-3 4.3%

2-4 2.0%

2-5 0.7%

3-0 2.8%

3-1 5.1%

3-2 4.6%

3-3 2.8%

3-4 1.2%

3-5 0.5%

4-0 1.3%

4-1 2.4%

4-2 2.2%

4-3 1.3%

4-4 0.6%

4-5 0.2%

5-0 0.5%

5-1 0.9%

5-2 0.8%

5-3 0.5%

5-4 0.2%

5-5 0.1%

Top Scores 1-1(8.5%) 2-1(8.0%) 1-2(7.6%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing Y=Home goals ↓ T=Away →

📈

Team Ratings

Grades

Young Boys

Overall

8.0 —

Scoring

10.0 —

Defence

6.7 —

Thun

Overall

8.6 —

Scoring

8.7 —

Defence

7.3 —

🔀

Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%

Home Win & BTTS No 14%

Draw & BTTS Yes 4%

Draw & BTTS No 2%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 33%

Away Win & BTTS No 14%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 42%

Home Win & Under 2.5 5%

Draw & Over 2.5 5%

Draw & Under 2.5 1%

Away Win & Over 2.5 42%

Away Win & Under 2.5 5%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

📜

Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ SL (Jan 25, 2026): Thun4

Young Boys1

⚽ SL (Sep 28, 2025): Young Boys4

Thun2

⚽ CF (Jun 28, 2024): Young Boys0

Thun2

⚽ CF (Jul 15, 2023): Young Boys4

Thun0

⚽ CUP (Feb 28, 2023): Thun0

Young Boys5

Recent Form

Young Boys

⚽ SL (Mar 4, 2026): Luzern1

Young Boys2

⚽ SL (Mar 1, 2026): Young Boys3

Zurich0

⚽ SL (Feb 22, 2026): Sion1

Young Boys3

⚽ SL (Feb 14, 2026): Young Boys6

Winterthur1

⚽ SL (Feb 11, 2026): St. Gallen2

Young Boys1

Thun

⚽ SL (Mar 5, 2026): Thun2

St. Gallen2

⚽ SL (Feb 28, 2026): Thun2

Luzern1

⚽ SL (Feb 25, 2026): Winterthur0

Thun3

⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2026): Thun1

Sion0

⚽ SL (Feb 12, 2026): Thun5

Lausanne1

📝

Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Sunday, 8th March 2026, Young Boys host Thun in Swiss Super League. Our analysis desk recommends over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Young Boys arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Thun are travelling well, with a record of 4W 1D 0L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Young Boys, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Thun's 2, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 8 Mar 2026

❓

Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Young Boys vs Thun?

Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 92%.

What is Young Boys's current form?

Young Boys have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Thun been performing recently?

Thun have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Young Boys lead with 3 wins versus Thun's 2, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

🔗

More Cases Today

⚠️

Bet Responsibly. DailyForebet provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.