WON Case WON UPDF 1-2 Vipers

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

UPDF

Q: What is the recommended bet for UPDF vs Vipers?

Our selection is 2 — Vipers to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 66%.

Q: What is UPDF's current form?

UPDF have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Vipers been performing recently?

Vipers have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

UPDF lead with 0 wins versus Vipers's 5, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

Home Side

D L L D L

0W 2D 3L → Holding Steady

1-2

Vipers

Away Side

W W D D W

3W 2D 0L ▼ Trending Down

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CASE VERIFIED

66%

Wednesday, 11th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Vipers to win

UPDF 20%

Draw 30%

Vipers 50%

H Fair Odds5

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds2

Implied Prob70.9%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-4.9%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBUPDF<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<V<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<4607822704DFB2607202M2607209<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

2 — Vipers to win

1.41

Under 2.5 Goals70%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

UPDF vs Vipers Competition: Uganda Premier League Date: Wednesday, 11th March 2026 Pick: 2 (Vipers to win) Odds: 1.41 Confidence: 66% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Ledger Ref: 460782270

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Head to Head

Record

UPDF

Draws

Vipers

Meetings

2.4

Avg Goals

40%

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Vipers won 5 of 5 meetings.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

UPDF

Metric

Vipers

0.2

Goals For / Game

2.2

0.8

Goals Against / Game

0.6

20%

Clean Sheets

40%

0-2-3

W — D — L

3-2-0

Win Rate

60%

1.9

Avg Goals

60%

Over 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 15.0%

0-1 22.4%

0-2 16.8%

0-3 8.4%

0-4 3.2%

0-5 1.0%

1-0 6.0%

1-1 9.0%

1-2 6.7%

1-3 3.4%

1-4 1.3%

1-5 0.4%

2-0 1.2%

2-1 1.8%

2-2 1.4%

2-3 0.7%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 0.2%

3-1 0.2%

3-2 0.2%

3-3 0.1%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 0.0%

4-1 0.0%

4-2 0.0%

4-3 0.0%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.0%

5-1 0.0%

5-2 0.0%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 0-1(22.4%) 0-2(16.8%) 0-3(8.4%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing U=Home goals ↓ V=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

UPDF Win

20%

Draw

30%

3.33

Vipers Win

50%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

UPDF

Overall

1.2 —

Scoring

0.7 —

Defence

7.3 —

Vipers

Overall

7.2 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

8.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Home Win & BTTS No 0%

Draw & BTTS Yes 16%

Draw & BTTS No 24%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Away Win & BTTS No 36%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 0%

Home Win & Under 2.5 0%

Draw & Over 2.5 12%

Draw & Under 2.5 28%

Away Win & Over 2.5 18%

Away Win & Under 2.5 42%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

📜

Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ PL (02.12.25): Vipers5

UPDF1

⚽ PL (29.04.25): Vipers1

UPDF0

⚽ PL (03.01.25): UPDF0

Vipers1

⚽ PL (05.04.24): Vipers2

UPDF1

⚽ PL (03.12.23): UPDF0

Vipers1

Recent Form

UPDF

⚽ PL (06.03.26): UPDF1

Kitara1

⚽ PL (03.03.26): NEC FC1

UPDF0

⚽ PL (18.02.26): Lugazi1

UPDF0

⚽ PL (13.02.26): UPDF0

Buhimba0

⚽ PL (30.01.26): UPDF0

BUL1

Vipers

⚽ PL (07.03.26): Mbarara City1

Vipers2

⚽ PL (03.03.26): Vipers3

Lugazi0

⚽ PL (17.02.26): Vipers1

NEC FC1

⚽ PL (13.02.26): BUL1

Vipers1

⚽ PL (30.01.26): Vipers4

Buhimba0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Wednesday, 11th March 2026, UPDF host Vipers in Uganda Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Vipers to win as the standout selection.

UPDF arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Vipers are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 2D 0L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour UPDF, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Vipers's 5, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: vipers to win at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 12 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for UPDF vs Vipers?

Our selection is 2 — Vipers to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 66%.

What is UPDF's current form?

UPDF have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

How has Vipers been performing recently?

Vipers have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

UPDF lead with 0 wins versus Vipers's 5, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

🔗

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