LOST Case LOST Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Middlesbrough

Q: What is the recommended bet for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

Our selection is 1 — Middlesbrough to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 55%.

Q: What is Middlesbrough's current form?

Middlesbrough have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Charlton been performing recently?

Charlton have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Middlesbrough lead with 4 wins versus Charlton's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

Home Side

W W D D L

2W 2D 1L ▼ Trending Down

0-1

Charlton

Away Side

W L D D L

1W 2D 2L ▼ Trending Down

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MODERATE

55%

Wednesday, 11th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Middlesbrough to win

Middlesbrough 50%

Draw 30%

Charlton 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob75.2%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-20.2%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBM<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<38068C7BB4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Head to Head

Record

Middlesbrough

Draws

Charlton

Meetings

Avg Goals

20%

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Middlesbrough won 4 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Middlesbrough

Metric

Charlton

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.8

Goals Against / Game

1.2

40%

Clean Sheets

20%

2-2-1

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate

40%

20%

2.4

Avg Goals

70%

Over 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 9.1%

0-1 8.2%

0-2 3.7%

0-3 1.1%

0-4 0.3%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 13.6%

1-1 12.3%

1-2 5.5%

1-3 1.7%

1-4 0.4%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 10.2%

2-1 9.2%

2-2 4.1%

2-3 1.2%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 5.1%

3-1 4.6%

3-2 2.1%

3-3 0.6%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 1.9%

4-1 1.7%

4-2 0.8%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.6%

5-1 0.5%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(13.6%) 2-0(10.2%) 2-1(9.2%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing M=Home goals ↓ C=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Middlesbrough Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Charlton Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Middlesbrough

Overall

5.2 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

6.7 —

Charlton

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

2.7 —

Defence

6.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Home Win & BTTS No 16%

Draw & BTTS Yes 24%

Draw & BTTS No 16%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%

Away Win & BTTS No 8%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 16%

Home Win & Under 2.5 24%

Draw & Over 2.5 16%

Draw & Under 2.5 24%

Away Win & Over 2.5 8%

Away Win & Under 2.5 12%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ CHA (09.12.25): Charlton1

Middlesbrough2

⚽ CHA (07.03.20): Charlton0

Middlesbrough1

⚽ CHA (07.12.19): Middlesbrough1

Charlton0

⚽ CHA (13.03.16): Charlton2

Middlesbrough0

⚽ CHA (31.10.15): Middlesbrough3

Charlton0

Recent Form

Middlesbrough

⚽ CHA (08.03.26): QPR0

Middlesbrough4

⚽ CHA (02.03.26): Birmingham1

Middlesbrough3

⚽ CHA (24.02.26): Middlesbrough1

Leicester1

⚽ CHA (21.02.26): Middlesbrough0

Oxford Utd0

⚽ CHA (16.02.26): Coventry3

Middlesbrough1

Charlton

⚽ CHA (07.03.26): Charlton1

Birmingham0

⚽ CHA (28.02.26): Charlton0

Wrexham1

⚽ CHA (24.02.26): West Brom1

Charlton1

⚽ CHA (21.02.26): Southampton1

Charlton1

⚽ CHA (17.02.26): Charlton1

Portsmouth3

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Wednesday, 11th March 2026, Middlesbrough host Charlton in Championship. Our analysis desk recommends Middlesbrough to win as the standout selection.

Middlesbrough arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Charlton are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Middlesbrough, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Charlton's 1, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: middlesbrough to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 12 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

Our selection is 1 — Middlesbrough to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 55%.

What is Middlesbrough's current form?

Middlesbrough have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Charlton been performing recently?

Charlton have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Middlesbrough lead with 4 wins versus Charlton's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

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