WON Case WON Royale Union SG 2-0 Dender

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Royale Union SG

Q: What is the recommended bet for Royale Union SG vs Dender?

Our selection is 1 — Royale Union SG to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 65%.

Q: What is Royale Union SG's current form?

Royale Union SG have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Dender been performing recently?

Dender have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Royale Union SG lead with 4 wins versus Dender's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

Home Side

W D W D W

3W 2D 0L → Holding Steady

2-0

Dender

Away Side

D D L L L

0W 2D 3L → Holding Steady

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CASE VERIFIED

65%

Saturday, 14th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Royale Union SG to win

Implied Prob78.1%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-13.1%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBR<<<<<<U<<<<<SG<<<<<<<D<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<096D3A2A44DFB2607252M2607259<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 14 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Royale Union SG to win

1.28

BTTS — Yes70%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Royale Union SG vs Dender Competition: Jupiler Pro League Date: Saturday, 14th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Royale Union SG to win) Odds: 1.28 Confidence: 65% Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: 096D3A2A4

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Head to Head

Record

Royale Union SG

Draws

Dender

Meetings

2.4

Avg Goals

40%

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Royale Union SG won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Royale Union SG

Metric

Dender

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.8

Goals Against / Game

20%

Clean Sheets

20%

3-2-0

W — D — L

0-2-3

Win Rate

60%

2.8

Avg Goals

70%

Over 1.5

60%

Over 2.5

70%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 6.1%

0-1 5.5%

0-2 2.5%

0-3 0.7%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 11.6%

1-1 10.4%

1-2 4.7%

1-3 1.4%

1-4 0.3%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 11.0%

2-1 9.9%

2-2 4.5%

2-3 1.3%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 7.0%

3-1 6.3%

3-2 2.8%

3-3 0.8%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 3.3%

4-1 3.0%

4-2 1.3%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.3%

5-1 1.1%

5-2 0.5%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(11.6%) 2-0(11.0%) 2-1(9.9%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing R=Home goals ↓ D=Away →

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Team Ratings

Grades

Royale Union SG

Overall

7.2 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

7.3 —

Dender

Overall

1.2 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

3.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 42%

Home Win & BTTS No 18%

Draw & BTTS Yes 28%

Draw & BTTS No 12%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Away Win & BTTS No 0%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 36%

Home Win & Under 2.5 24%

Draw & Over 2.5 24%

Draw & Under 2.5 16%

Away Win & Over 2.5 0%

Away Win & Under 2.5 0%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ CUP (Jan 14, 2026): Dender0

Royale Union SG2

⚽ JL (Sep 13, 2025): Dender0

Royale Union SG1

⚽ JL (Mar 1, 2025): Royale Union SG4

Dender1

⚽ CF (Oct 10, 2024): Royale Union SG3

Dender1

⚽ JL (Jul 27, 2024): Dender0

Royale Union SG0

Recent Form

Royale Union SG

⚽ JL (Mar 07, 2026): Royale Union SG2

Genk1

⚽ JL (Mar 01, 2026): Westerlo0

Royale Union SG0

⚽ JL (Feb 21, 2026): Royale Union SG2

Antwerp1

⚽ JL (Feb 14, 2026): St. Liege1

Royale Union SG1

⚽ CUP (Feb 11, 2026): Royale Union SG4

Charleroi1

Dender

⚽ JL (Mar 07, 2026): Dender2

Charleroi2

⚽ JL (Mar 01, 2026): Cercle Brugge0

Dender0

⚽ JL (Feb 21, 2026): Dender1

St. Truiden4

⚽ JL (Feb 14, 2026): OH Leuven3

Dender2

⚽ JL (Feb 07, 2026): Zulte Waregem1

Dender0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Saturday, 14th March 2026, Royale Union SG host Dender in Jupiler Pro League. Our analysis desk recommends Royale Union SG to win as the standout selection.

Royale Union SG arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Dender are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Royale Union SG, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Dender's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: royale union sg to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 14 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Royale Union SG vs Dender?

Our selection is 1 — Royale Union SG to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 65%.

What is Royale Union SG's current form?

Royale Union SG have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Dender been performing recently?

Dender have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Royale Union SG lead with 4 wins versus Dender's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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