WON Case WON Molodechno 1-4 Bate
Fixture Case File · Ref V
M

Molodechno

Home Side
L L D W W
4W 1D 5L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-4
B
Bate
Away Side
D D D D W
1W 6D 3L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
48%
Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Bate to win
Molodechno 20%
Draw 30%
Bate 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob70.9%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-22.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBM<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<1D692BAF94DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
1
Molodechno
0
Draws
9
Bate
10
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Bate won 9 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Molodechno
Metric
Bate
1.3
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.9
Goals Against / Game
1
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-1-5
W — D — L
1-6-3
Win Rate
40%
10%
2.5
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
M0
0-0 8.6%
0-1 11.2%
0-2 7.3%
0-3 3.2%
0-4 1.0%
0-5 0.3%
M1
1-0 9.9%
1-1 12.9%
1-2 8.4%
1-3 3.6%
1-4 1.2%
1-5 0.3%
M2
2-0 5.7%
2-1 7.4%
2-2 4.8%
2-3 2.1%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
M3
3-0 2.2%
3-1 2.8%
3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(11.2%) 1-2(8.4%) 0-2(7.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing M=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Molodechno Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Bate Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Molodechno
Overall
4.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
3.7
Bate
Overall
2.8
Scoring
2.3
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 21%
Draw & BTTS No 21%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 25%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
16.08.25VL
BATE2
Molodechno1
05.04.25VL
Molodechno0
BATE1
11.02.23CF
BATE5
Molodechno0
02.08.03VL
Molodechno1
BATE4
15.05.03VL
BATE3
Molodechno2
25.10.01VL
Molodechno2
BATE1
19.10.01VL
BATE4
Molodechno0
30.06.01VL
BATE4
Molodechno3
17.06.01VL
Molodechno1
BATE3
30.07.99VL
BATE2
Molodechno1
Recent Form
Molodechno
13.06.26PL
Molodechno1
SKA-19384
L
07.06.26PL
Slutsk2
Molodechno1
L
01.06.26PL
Molodechno1
Din. Minsk 21
D
27.05.26CUP
Urozhaynaya0
Molodechno3
W
23.05.26PL
Ostrovets2
Molodechno3
W
16.05.26PL
Molodechno1
FC Slonim0
W
08.05.26PL
BATE 22
Molodechno3
W
02.05.26PL
Molodechno0
Uni X Labs1
L
26.04.26PL
Soligorsk5
Molodechno0
L
20.04.26PL
FC Gomel 22
Molodechno0
L
Bate
12.06.26VL
Belshina1
BATE1
D
31.05.26VL
BATE1
Dnepr Mogilev1
D
24.05.26VL
Slavia Mozyr1
BATE1
D
20.05.26VL
BATE0
Din. Minsk0
D
16.05.26CUP
Din. Minsk1
BATE (pen 7-8)1
W
10.05.26VL
Naftan0
BATE0
D
03.05.26VL
BATE0
Dynamo Brest3
L
29.04.26CUP
BATE2
Slavia Mozyr0
W
24.04.26VL
FC Minsk1
BATE0
L
19.04.26VL
BATE1
ML Vitebsk2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 17th June 2026, Molodechno host Bate in Belarus Cup. Our analysis desk recommends Bate to win as the standout selection.

Molodechno arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Bate are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 6D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Molodechno, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Bate's 9, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bate to win at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Belarus Cup game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.41. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 18 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Molodechno vs Bate?
Our selection is 2 — Bate to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Molodechno's current form?
Molodechno have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Bate been performing recently?
Bate have recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Molodechno lead with 1 wins versus Bate's 9, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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