WON Case WON Botofogo U20 1-0 Gremio U20
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Botofogo U20

Home Side
W D W W W
7W 1D 2L → Holding Steady
VS
1-0
G
Gremio U20
Away Side
L L D W L
2W 2D 6L ▼ Trending Down
CAUTION
43%
Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Botofogo U20 to win
Botofogo U20 50%
Draw 30%
Gremio U20 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob71.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-28.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<<<<<U20<<<<<<<<<<G<<<<<<U20<<<<<<<D6059E6E54DFB2607222M2607229<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Botofogo U20 to win
1.40
Under 2.5 Goals80% BTTS — No80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Botofogo U20 vs Gremio U20 Competition: Brasileiro U20 Date: Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Botofogo U20 to win) Odds: 1.40 Confidence: 43% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: BTTS — No (80%) Ledger Ref: D6059E6E5
Head to Head
Record
0
Botofogo U20
5
Draws
2
Gremio U20
7
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
29%
BTTS
57%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Botofogo U20 won 0 of the last 7 meetings (5 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Botofogo U20
Metric
Gremio U20
0
Goals For / Game
1.1
0
Goals Against / Game
1.9
0%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-1-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
70%
20%
1.5
Avg Goals
35%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
20%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
B0
0-0 22.3%
0-1 12.3%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 21.2%
1-1 11.7%
1-2 3.2%
1-3 0.6%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
B2
2-0 10.1%
2-1 5.5%
2-2 1.5%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 3.2%
3-1 1.8%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(21.2%) 2-0(10.1%) 2-1(5.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   G=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Botofogo U20 Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Gremio U20 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Botofogo U20
Overall
7.3
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Gremio U20
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 54%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 54%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 4%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.07.25BRA
Botafogo U204
Gremio U200
04.04.24BRA
Botafogo U201
Gremio U202
27.06.21BRA
Gremio U200
Botafogo U202
26.09.20BRA
Gremio U200
Botafogo U200
11.09.19BRA
Gremio U203
Botafogo U200
06.09.17BRA
Gremio U200
Botafogo U201
30.08.17BRA
Botafogo U203
Gremio U201
Recent Form
Botofogo U20
10.06.26BRA
Botafogo U202
Criciuma U200
W
27.05.26BRA
Santos U201
Botafogo U201
D
21.05.26BRA
Athletico-PR U200
Botafogo U203
W
16.05.26BRA
Botafogo U203
Cruzeiro U201
W
13.05.26BRA
Botafogo U203
Flamengo RJ U201
W
06.05.26BRA
Juventude U200
Botafogo U203
W
29.04.26BRA
Vasco U201
Botafogo U200
L
26.04.26BRA
Botafogo U202
Fortaleza U201
W
22.04.26BRA
Botafogo U201
Bahia U200
W
14.04.26BRA
Cuiaba U203
Botafogo U201
L
Gremio U20
14.06.26GAU
Gremio U200
Internacional U201
L
10.06.26BRA
Gremio U200
Fluminense U203
L
05.06.26GAU
Gremio U200
Novo Hamburgo U200
D
31.05.26GAU
Novo Hamburgo U200
Gremio U201
W
27.05.26BRA
Cuiaba U202
Gremio U200
L
24.05.26GAU
Gremio U202
SC Ivoti U200
W
21.05.26BRA
RB Bragantino U205
Gremio U204
L
16.05.26BRA
Gremio U201
Avai U201
D
12.05.26BRA
Vitoria U202
Gremio U201
L
06.05.26BRA
Cruzeiro U205
Gremio U202
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 17th June 2026, Botofogo U20 host Gremio U20 in Brasileiro U20. Our analysis desk recommends Botofogo U20 to win as the standout selection.

Botofogo U20 arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Gremio U20 are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Botofogo U20, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Gremio U20's 2, with 5 draws from 7 encounters. Both teams have scored in 29% of those meetings.

Our verdict: botofogo u20 to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Brasileiro U20 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.40. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 18 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Botofogo U20 vs Gremio U20?
Our selection is 1 — Botofogo U20 to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 43%.
What is Botofogo U20's current form?
Botofogo U20 have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Gremio U20 been performing recently?
Gremio U20 have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Botofogo U20 lead with 0 wins versus Gremio U20's 2, with 5 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 29%.
⚠️
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