WON Case WON Kalju 1-4 Tammeka
Fixture Case File · Ref V
K

Kalju

Home Side
D L W W L
4W 2D 4L → Holding Steady
VS
1-4
T
Tammeka
Away Side
D L W W W
3W 2D 5L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
55%
Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Kalju to win
Kalju 50%
Draw 30%
Tammeka 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob73%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-18%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBK<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<T<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<EEA8D523A4DFB2607222M2607229<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
8
Kalju
2
Draws
0
Tammeka
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Kalju won 8 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kalju
Metric
Tammeka
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.7
1
Goals Against / Game
1.2
30%
Clean Sheets
40%
4-2-4
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
40%
30%
2.3
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
K0
0-0 10.0%
0-1 8.5%
0-2 3.6%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
K1
1-0 14.5%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 1.5%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 10.5%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 3.8%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
K3
3-0 5.1%
3-1 4.3%
3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 1.9%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.5%) 2-0(10.5%) 2-1(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing K=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kalju Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Tammeka Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Kalju
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
6.7
Tammeka
Overall
3.6
Scoring
2.3
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.03.26ML
Tammeka0
Kalju1
02.11.25ML
Kalju2
Tammeka1
03.08.25ML
Tammeka1
Kalju3
10.05.25ML
Tammeka0
Kalju1
16.03.25ML
Kalju2
Tammeka2
29.09.24ML
Tammeka2
Kalju3
27.07.24ML
Kalju3
Tammeka0
28.06.24ML
Tammeka1
Kalju1
03.05.24ML
Kalju4
Tammeka2
23.09.23ML
Kalju4
Tammeka1
Recent Form
Kalju
14.06.26ML
Kalju1
Paide1
D
30.05.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus3
Kalju1
L
20.05.26ML
Kalju1
Harju JK Laagri0
W
17.05.26ML
Kuressaare0
Kalju2
W
10.05.26ML
Kalju0
Flora1
L
01.05.26ML
Narva0
Kalju3
W
26.04.26ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus2
L
22.04.26ML
Kalju7
Nomme Utd1
W
19.04.26ML
Paide1
Kalju0
L
12.04.26ML
Kalju1
Levadia1
D
Tammeka
13.06.26ML
Tammeka0
Parnu JK Vaprus0
D
30.05.26ML
Tammeka0
Levadia1
L
15.05.26ML
Tammeka3
Nomme Utd1
W
08.05.26ML
Tammeka1
Kuressaare0
W
01.05.26ML
Paide0
Tammeka1
W
25.04.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Tammeka0
L
22.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Levadia2
L
18.04.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Tammeka0
D
12.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Paide4
L
07.04.26ML
Narva3
Tammeka0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 17th June 2026, Kalju host Tammeka in Estonia Meistriliiga. Our analysis desk recommends Kalju to win as the standout selection.

Kalju arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Tammeka are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kalju, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Tammeka's 0, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kalju to win at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Estonia Meistriliiga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.37. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 18 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kalju vs Tammeka?
Our selection is 1 — Kalju to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is Kalju's current form?
Kalju have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Tammeka been performing recently?
Tammeka have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kalju lead with 8 wins versus Tammeka's 0, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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