WON Case WON Karlskrona 3-1 IFK Karlshamn
Fixture Case File · Ref V
K

Karlskrona

Home Side
W L L D W
5W 2D 3L → Holding Steady
VS
3-1
I
IFK Karlshamn
Away Side
L W D L L
2W 1D 7L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
54%
Thursday, 18th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Karlskrona to win
Karlskrona 50%
Draw 30%
IFK Karlshamn 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob81.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-27.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBK<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<IFK<K<<<<<<<<<<<<151B5FAAF4DFB2607252M2607259<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 19 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Karlskrona to win
1.23
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Karlskrona vs IFK Karlshamn Competition: Swe Div 2 Sodra Gotaland Date: Thursday, 18th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Karlskrona to win) Odds: 1.23 Confidence: 54% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: 151B5FAAF
Head to Head
Record
4
Karlskrona
0
Draws
2
IFK Karlshamn
6
Meetings
3.8
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Karlskrona won 4 of the last 6 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Karlskrona
Metric
IFK Karlshamn
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.9
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-2-3
W — D — L
2-1-7
Win Rate
50%
20%
3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
I0
I1
I2
I3
I4
I5
K0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 6.2%
0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
K1
1-0 8.7%
1-1 10.9%
1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.8%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.2%
K2
2-0 7.6%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
K3
3-0 4.5%
3-1 5.6%
3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
K4
4-0 2.0%
4-1 2.4%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
K5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 1-0(8.7%) 2-0(7.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing K=Home goals ↓   I=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Karlskrona Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
IFK Karlshamn Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Karlskrona
Overall
5.6
Scoring
5.3
Defence
5.3
IFK Karlshamn
Overall
2.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 38%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
28.06.25DIV
IFK Karlshamn0
Karlskrona4
18.04.25DIV
Karlskrona3
IFK Karlshamn1
13.09.24DIV
Karlskrona4
IFK Karlshamn1
17.05.24DIV
IFK Karlshamn2
Karlskrona1
04.08.21DIV
Karlskrona4
IFK Karlshamn0
09.06.21DIV
IFK Karlshamn2
Karlskrona1
Recent Form
Karlskrona
14.06.26DIV
Linero IF2
Karlskrona4
W
10.06.26CUP
Football Primetime1
Karlskrona0
L
06.06.26DIV
Nosaby3
Karlskrona1
L
31.05.26DIV
Karlskrona1
Lilla Torg1
D
24.05.26DIV
Oskarshamn0
Karlskrona3
W
16.05.26DIV
Karlskrona1
Staffanstorp United1
D
08.05.26DIV
Rappe GOIF1
Karlskrona2
W
01.05.26DIV
Karlskrona1
Solvesborgs0
W
25.04.26DIV
Vaxjo Norra4
Karlskrona0
L
19.04.26DIV
Karlskrona3
Osterlen1
W
IFK Karlshamn
12.06.26DIV
IFK Karlshamn0
Solvesborgs2
L
07.06.26DIV
IFK Karlshamn2
Lilla Torg0
W
30.05.26DIV
Nosaby2
IFK Karlshamn2
D
22.05.26DIV
IFK Karlshamn1
Vaxjo Norra2
L
14.05.26DIV
IFK Karlshamn1
Oskarshamn5
L
10.05.26DIV
Staffanstorp United1
IFK Karlshamn2
W
02.05.26DIV
IFK Karlshamn1
Linero IF2
L
25.04.26DIV
IFK Trelleborg2
IFK Karlshamn1
L
19.04.26DIV
IFK Karlshamn0
IFK Berga1
L
11.04.26DIV
Torns2
IFK Karlshamn1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 18th June 2026, Karlskrona host IFK Karlshamn in Swe Div 2 Sodra Gotaland. Our analysis desk recommends Karlskrona to win as the standout selection.

Karlskrona arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

IFK Karlshamn are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 1D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Karlskrona, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to IFK Karlshamn's 2, with 0 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: karlskrona to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Swe Div 2 Sodra Gotaland game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.23. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 19 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Karlskrona vs IFK Karlshamn?
Our selection is 1 — Karlskrona to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is Karlskrona's current form?
Karlskrona have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has IFK Karlshamn been performing recently?
IFK Karlshamn have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Karlskrona lead with 4 wins versus IFK Karlshamn's 2, with 0 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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