WON Case WON Grebbestad 4-3 Vanersborgs IF
Fixture Case File · Ref V
G

Grebbestad

Home Side
W L W W W
6W 0D 4L ▲ Trending Up
VS
4-3
V
Vanersborgs IF
Away Side
D L L L L
1W 1D 8L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
90%
Thursday, 18th June 2026 Case Verdict
1X
Filing on Grebbestad to win or draw
Implied Prob88.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+1.5%Value detected
Kelly %13.1%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBG<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<V<<<<<<<<<<<IF<<<C45530AF54DFB2607252M2607259<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 19 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1X — Grebbestad to win or draw
1.13
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Grebbestad vs Vanersborgs IF Competition: Swe Div 2 Norra Gotaland Date: Thursday, 18th June 2026 Pick: 1X (Grebbestad to win or draw) Odds: 1.13 Confidence: 90% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Ledger Ref: C45530AF5
Head to Head
Record
4
Grebbestad
2
Draws
3
Vanersborgs IF
9
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
56%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Grebbestad
Metric
Vanersborgs IF
2
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.3
Goals Against / Game
3
30%
Clean Sheets
0%
6-0-4
W — D — L
1-1-8
Win Rate
60%
10%
3.6
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
G0
0-0 2.9%
0-1 3.0%
0-2 1.6%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
G1
1-0 7.2%
1-1 7.5%
1-2 4.0%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
G2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
G3
3-0 7.5%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
G4
4-0 4.7%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 2.6%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
G5
5-0 2.3%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.4%) 2-0(9.0%) 3-1(7.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing G=Home goals ↓   V=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Grebbestad
Overall
6.0
Scoring
6.7
Defence
5.7
Vanersborgs IF
Overall
1.3
Scoring
2.7
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 44%
Home Win & BTTS No 36%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 64%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 3%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
16.08.25DIV
Vanersborgs IF1
Grebbestad1
23.05.25DIV
Grebbestad3
Vanersborgs IF0
04.10.24DIV
Vanersborgs IF2
Grebbestad0
20.06.24DIV
Grebbestad4
Vanersborgs IF0
14.08.20DIV
Grebbestad1
Vanersborgs IF4
28.09.19DIV
Vanersborgs IF1
Grebbestad3
20.06.19DIV
Grebbestad0
Vanersborgs IF0
08.09.17DIV
Vanersborgs IF2
Grebbestad1
24.05.17DIV
Grebbestad3
Vanersborgs IF1
Recent Form
Grebbestad
12.06.26DIV
IFK Skovde0
Grebbestad4
W
05.06.26DIV
Grebbestad1
Husqvarna2
L
29.05.26DIV
Vanersborgs FK2
Grebbestad3
W
23.05.26DIV
Grebbestad2
Motala0
W
14.05.26DIV
Lidkoping1
Grebbestad3
W
09.05.26DIV
Grebbestad0
Ahlafors IF2
L
01.05.26DIV
Skara3
Grebbestad1
L
25.04.26DIV
Grebbestad3
Tord0
W
18.04.26DIV
Grebbestad2
Herrestads AIF1
W
10.04.26DIV
Stenungsunds2
Grebbestad1
L
Vanersborgs IF
15.06.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF2
Herrestads AIF2
D
04.06.26DIV
Stenungsunds5
Vanersborgs IF0
L
31.05.26DIV
Motala2
Vanersborgs IF0
L
22.05.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF0
Husqvarna4
L
15.05.26DIV
IFK Skovde6
Vanersborgs IF2
L
08.05.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF0
Lidkoping1
L
01.05.26DIV
Vanersborgs FK1
Vanersborgs IF2
W
24.04.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF1
Skara2
L
18.04.26DIV
Ahlafors IF3
Vanersborgs IF0
L
11.04.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF1
Karlstad II4
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 18th June 2026, Grebbestad host Vanersborgs IF in Swe Div 2 Norra Gotaland. Our analysis desk recommends Grebbestad to win or draw as the standout selection.

Grebbestad arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Vanersborgs IF are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 1D 8L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Grebbestad, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Vanersborgs IF's 3, with 2 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 56% of those meetings.

Our verdict: grebbestad to win or draw at odds of 1.13 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Swe Div 2 Norra Gotaland game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1X, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.13. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 19 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Grebbestad vs Vanersborgs IF?
Our selection is 1X — Grebbestad to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.13. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Grebbestad's current form?
Grebbestad have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vanersborgs IF been performing recently?
Vanersborgs IF have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Grebbestad lead with 4 wins versus Vanersborgs IF's 3, with 2 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 56%.
⚠️
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