WON Case WON Dijon W 1-2 PSG W

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Dijon W

Q: What is the recommended bet for Dijon W vs PSG W?

Our selection is 2 — PSG W to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 68%.

Q: What is Dijon W's current form?

Dijon W have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

Q: How has PSG W been performing recently?

PSG W have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Dijon W lead with 0 wins versus PSG W's 10, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.

Home Side

W D L D W

5W 3D 2L ▼ Trending Down

1-2

PSG W

Away Side

L W W W W

8W 0D 2L ▲ Trending Up

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CASE VERIFIED

68%

Wednesday, 18th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on PSG W to win

Dijon W 20%

Draw 30%

PSG W 50%

H Fair Odds5

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds2

Implied Prob75.8%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-7.8%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBD<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<PSG<W<<<<<<<<<<<<BA234B1324DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

2 — PSG W to win

1.32

Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80% BTTS — No80% PSG W Clean Sheet70%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Dijon W vs PSG W Competition: Coupe De France Women Date: Wednesday, 18th March 2026 Pick: 2 (PSG W to win) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 68% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: BTTS — No (80%) Also: PSG W Clean Sheet (70%) Ledger Ref: BA234B132

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Head to Head

Record

Dijon W

Draws

PSG W

Meetings

3.8

Avg Goals

30%

BTTS

70%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing PSG W won 10 of 10 meetings.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Dijon W

Metric

PSG W

1.4

Goals For / Game

2.7

1.1

Goals Against / Game

0.3

50%

Clean Sheets

70%

5-3-2

W — D — L

8-0-2

Win Rate

50%

80%

2.8

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

65%

Over 2.5

20%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 6.4%

0-1 12.2%

0-2 11.5%

0-3 7.3%

0-4 3.5%

0-5 1.3%

1-0 5.4%

1-1 10.3%

1-2 9.8%

1-3 6.2%

1-4 3.0%

1-5 1.1%

2-0 2.3%

2-1 4.4%

2-2 4.2%

2-3 2.6%

2-4 1.3%

2-5 0.5%

3-0 0.7%

3-1 1.2%

3-2 1.2%

3-3 0.8%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 0.1%

4-1 0.3%

4-2 0.3%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.0%

5-1 0.0%

5-2 0.0%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 0-1(12.2%) 0-2(11.5%) 1-2(9.8%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing D=Home goals ↓ P=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Dijon W Win

20%

Draw

30%

3.33

PSG W Win

50%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Dijon W

Overall

5.9 ▲

Scoring

4.7 ▲

Defence

6.3 ▲

PSG W

Overall

8.0 —

Scoring

9.0 —

Defence

9.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 7%

Home Win & BTTS No 27%

Draw & BTTS Yes 2%

Draw & BTTS No 8%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Away Win & BTTS No 45%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 22%

Home Win & Under 2.5 12%

Draw & Over 2.5 7%

Draw & Under 2.5 4%

Away Win & Over 2.5 36%

Away Win & Under 2.5 20%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

14.01.26

PL: Dijon W0

PSG4

04.10.25

PL: PSG W1

Dijon0

01.03.25

PL: Dijon W0

PSG1

23.11.24

PL: PSG W6

Dijon1

31.03.24

PL: PSG W3

Dijon0

12.11.23

PL: Dijon W2

PSG5

26.02.23

PL: Dijon W0

PSG4

28.01.23

COU: Dijon W0

PSG2

15.10.22

PL: PSG W3

Dijon1

11.02.22

PL: PSG W5

Dijon0

Recent Form

Dijon W

11.03.26

PL: Dijon W2

St Etienne W0

21.02.26

PL: Fleury 91 W0

Dijon W0

14.02.26

CLF: Dijon W0

Lyon W4

07.02.26

PL: Dijon W1

Nantes W1

04.02.26

CLF: Dijon W2

Nantes W1

31.01.26

PL: Strasbourg W0

Dijon W3

25.01.26

COU: Dijon W1

Fleury 91 W0

21.01.26

CLF: Dijon W4

Reims W0

17.01.26

PL: Montpellier W1

Dijon W1

14.01.26

PL: Dijon W0

PSG W4

PSG W

14.03.26

CLF: Lyon W1

PSG W0

11.03.26

PL: PSG W2

Marseille W1

20.02.26

PL: PSG W3

Lens W0

14.02.26

CLF: PSG W3

Paris FC W0

07.02.26

PL: Paris FC W0

PSG W3

04.02.26

CLF: PSG W3

Thonon Evian W0

01.02.26

PL: PSG W0

Lyon W1

24.01.26

COU: PSG W5

Montpellier W0

17.01.26

PL: Le Havre W0

PSG W4

14.01.26

PL: Dijon W0

PSG W4

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Wednesday, 18th March 2026, Dijon W host PSG W in Coupe De France Women. Our analysis desk recommends PSG W to win as the standout selection.

Dijon W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

PSG W are travelling well, with a record of 8W 0D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Dijon W, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to PSG W's 10, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: psg w to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 18 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Dijon W vs PSG W?

Our selection is 2 — PSG W to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 68%.

What is Dijon W's current form?

Dijon W have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has PSG W been performing recently?

PSG W have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Dijon W lead with 0 wins versus PSG W's 10, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.

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