WON Case WON Braga 4-0 Ferencvaros

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Braga

Q: What is the recommended bet for Braga vs Ferencvaros?

Our selection is 1 — Braga to win, priced at approximately 1.53. Tip confidence rating: 45%.

Q: What is Braga's current form?

Braga have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

Q: How has Ferencvaros been performing recently?

Ferencvaros have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Braga lead with 0 wins versus Ferencvaros's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

Home Side

L D W W L

6W 2D 2L → Holding Steady

4-0

Ferencvaros

Away Side

W W W W W

8W 0D 2L → Holding Steady

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MODERATE

45%

Wednesday, 18th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Braga to win

Braga 50%

Draw 30%

Ferencvaros 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob65.4%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-20.4%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBB<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<F<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<37055C39E4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Braga to win

1.53

Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals90%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Braga vs Ferencvaros Competition: UEFA Europa League Date: Wednesday, 18th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Braga to win) Odds: 1.53 Confidence: 45% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ledger Ref: 37055C39E

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Head to Head

Record

Braga

Draws

Ferencvaros

Meetings

Avg Goals

BTTS

Over 2.5

Against Filing Braga won 0 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Braga

Metric

Ferencvaros

2.1

Goals For / Game

2.6

0.9

Goals Against / Game

0.8

50%

Clean Sheets

50%

6-2-2

W — D — L

8-0-2

Win Rate

60%

80%

3.2

Avg Goals

90%

Over 1.5

75%

Over 2.5

45%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 4.1%

0-1 7.1%

0-2 6.2%

0-3 3.6%

0-4 1.6%

0-5 0.6%

1-0 5.9%

1-1 10.3%

1-2 9.1%

1-3 5.3%

1-4 2.3%

1-5 0.8%

2-0 4.3%

2-1 7.5%

2-2 6.6%

2-3 3.8%

2-4 1.7%

2-5 0.6%

3-0 2.1%

3-1 3.6%

3-2 3.2%

3-3 1.9%

3-4 0.8%

3-5 0.3%

4-0 0.8%

4-1 1.3%

4-2 1.2%

4-3 0.7%

4-4 0.3%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.2%

5-1 0.4%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 2-1(7.5%) 1-0(5.9%) 2-0(4.3%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓ F=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Braga Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Ferencvaros Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Braga

Overall

6.6 ▲

Scoring

7.0 ▲

Defence

7.0 ▲

Ferencvaros

Overall

8.0 ▼

Scoring

8.7 ▼

Defence

7.3 ▼

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Home Win & BTTS No 22%

Draw & BTTS Yes 3%

Draw & BTTS No 4%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Away Win & BTTS No 29%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 30%

Home Win & Under 2.5 10%

Draw & Over 2.5 5%

Draw & Under 2.5 2%

Away Win & Over 2.5 40%

Away Win & Under 2.5 13%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

12.03.26

EL: Ferencvaros2

Braga0

Recent Form

Braga

12.03.26

EL: Ferencvaros2

Braga0

07.03.26

LP: Braga2

Sporting CP2

28.02.26

LP: Nacional1

Braga2

21.02.26

LP: Braga3

Vitoria Guimaraes2

14.02.26

LP: Gil Vicente2

Braga1

08.02.26

LP: Braga3

Rio Ave0

02.02.26

LP: AFS0

Braga4

29.01.26

EL: G.A. Eagles0

Braga0

25.01.26

LP: Braga5

Alverca0

22.01.26

EL: Braga1

Nottingham0

Ferencvaros

12.03.26

EL: Ferencvaros2

Braga0

08.03.26

NBI: Nyiregyhaza1

Ferencvaros3

04.03.26

HC: Kazincbarcika0

Ferencvaros5

01.03.26

NBI: Ferencvaros2

Kazincbarcika1

26.02.26

EL: Ferencvaros2

Ludogorets0

23.02.26

NBI: MTK Budapest1

Ferencvaros3

19.02.26

EL: Ludogorets2

Ferencvaros1

14.02.26

NBI: Zalaegerszegi3

Ferencvaros1

11.02.26

HC: Ferencvaros4

Csakvari0

07.02.26

NBI: Ferencvaros3

Ujpest0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Wednesday, 18th March 2026, Braga host Ferencvaros in UEFA Europa League. Our analysis desk recommends Braga to win as the standout selection.

Braga arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ferencvaros are travelling well, with a record of 8W 0D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Braga, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Ferencvaros's 1, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: braga to win at odds of 1.53 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 18 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Braga vs Ferencvaros?

Our selection is 1 — Braga to win, priced at approximately 1.53. Tip confidence rating: 45%.

What is Braga's current form?

Braga have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Ferencvaros been performing recently?

Ferencvaros have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Braga lead with 0 wins versus Ferencvaros's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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