WON Case WON Azam 2-0 Mashujaa
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Azam

Home Side
W W W W W
9W 0D 1L ▲ Trending Up
VS
2-0
M
Mashujaa
Away Side
L L D L L
1W 5D 4L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
67%
Tuesday, 16th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Azam to win
Azam 60%
Draw 20%
Mashujaa 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob83.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-16.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<889FA19AD4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 17 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Azam to win
1.20
Under 2.5 Goals70% BTTS — No85% Azam Clean Sheet90%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Azam vs Mashujaa Competition: Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara Date: Tuesday, 16th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Azam to win) Odds: 1.20 Confidence: 67% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: BTTS — No (85%) Also: Azam Clean Sheet (90%) Ledger Ref: 889FA19AD
Head to Head
Record
3
Azam
3
Draws
0
Mashujaa
6
Meetings
1
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
17%
Over 2.5
Neutral Azam won 3 of the last 6 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Azam
Metric
Mashujaa
2.2
Goals For / Game
0.3
0.4
Goals Against / Game
0.9
90%
Clean Sheets
40%
9-0-1
W — D — L
1-5-4
Win Rate
90%
10%
1.9
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
15%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
A0
0-0 15.0%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 0.9%
0-3 0.1%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 23.2%
1-1 8.1%
1-2 1.4%
1-3 0.2%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
A2
2-0 18.0%
2-1 6.3%
2-2 1.1%
2-3 0.1%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
A3
3-0 9.3%
3-1 3.3%
3-2 0.6%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 3.6%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(23.2%) 2-0(18.0%) 3-0(9.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Azam Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Mashujaa Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Azam
Overall
9.0
Scoring
7.3
Defence
8.7
Mashujaa
Overall
2.5
Scoring
1.0
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Home Win & BTTS No 61%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 17%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 1%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 50%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 14%
Away Win & Over 2.5 2%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.05.26FAC
Mashujaa0
Azam1
19.03.26LKB
Mashujaa0
Azam0
15.02.25LKB
Azam2
Mashujaa0
29.09.24LKB
Mashujaa0
Azam0
17.04.24LKB
Azam0
Mashujaa0
01.11.23LKB
Mashujaa0
Azam3
Recent Form
Azam
12.06.26LKB
Fountain Gate0
Azam2
W
25.05.26LKB
Azam3
Kinondoni MC0
W
22.05.26LKB
Azam2
Tanzania Prisons0
W
17.05.26FAC
Mashujaa0
Azam1
W
14.05.26LKB
Azam2
Pamba0
W
08.05.26LKB
TRA United4
Azam1
L
05.05.26LKB
Azam1
Namungo0
W
02.05.26LKB
Mtibwa Sugar0
Azam3
W
17.04.26LKB
Azam3
JKT Tanzania0
W
12.04.26FAC
Azam4
Fountain Gate0
W
Mashujaa
13.06.26LKB
Mashujaa0
Young Africans2
L
24.05.26LKB
Coastal Union1
Mashujaa0
L
20.05.26LKB
Dodoma Jiji1
Mashujaa1
D
17.05.26FAC
Mashujaa0
Azam1
L
14.05.26LKB
Mashujaa0
Simba3
L
08.05.26LKB
Namungo0
Mashujaa0
D
04.05.26LKB
Mashujaa1
TRA United0
W
30.04.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Mashujaa0
D
16.04.26LKB
Mashujaa1
Singida Black Stars1
D
10.04.26FAC
Geita Gold0
Mashujaa (pen 2-4)0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 16th June 2026, Azam host Mashujaa in Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara. Our analysis desk recommends Azam to win as the standout selection.

Azam arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Mashujaa are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 5D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Azam, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Mashujaa's 0, with 3 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: azam to win at odds of 1.20 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.20. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 17 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Azam vs Mashujaa?
Our selection is 1 — Azam to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Azam's current form?
Azam have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mashujaa been performing recently?
Mashujaa have recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Azam lead with 3 wins versus Mashujaa's 0, with 3 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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