WON Case WON Al Wasl 2-1 Ittihad Kalba
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Al Wasl

Home Side
W W W L W
5W 1D 4L ▼ Trending Down
VS
2-1
I
Ittihad Kalba
Away Side
L D L D D
1W 5D 4L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
47%
Friday, 15th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Al Wasl to win
Al Wasl 50%
Draw 30%
Ittihad Kalba 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-29.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<I<<<<<<<K<<<<<<<<EA03EDA034DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 16 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Al Wasl to win
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Al Wasl vs Ittihad Kalba Competition: UAE League Date: Friday, 15th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Wasl to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 47% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Also: BTTS — Yes (75%) Ledger Ref: EA03EDA03
Head to Head
Record
4
Al Wasl
6
Draws
0
Ittihad Kalba
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
90%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Al Wasl won 4 of the last 10 meetings (6 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Wasl
Metric
Ittihad Kalba
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1.9
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-1-4
W — D — L
1-5-4
Win Rate
50%
10%
3.3
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
I0
I1
I2
I3
I4
I5
A0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 4.2%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
A1
1-0 6.6%
1-1 10.0%
1-2 7.5%
1-3 3.7%
1-4 1.4%
1-5 0.4%
A2
2-0 6.0%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 6.7%
2-3 3.4%
2-4 1.3%
2-5 0.4%
A3
3-0 3.6%
3-1 5.4%
3-2 4.0%
3-3 2.0%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.2%
A4
4-0 1.6%
4-1 2.4%
4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.0%) 1-0(6.6%) 2-0(6.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   I=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Wasl Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Ittihad Kalba Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Wasl
Overall
5.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
4.3
Ittihad Kalba
Overall
2.5
Scoring
4.3
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 42%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 25%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 3%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 42%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 25%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 3%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
07.01.26LEA
Ittihad Kalba2
Al Wasl2
30.01.25LEA
Al Wasl1
Ittihad Kalba1
26.01.25PC
Al Wasl2
Ittihad Kalba0
23.08.24LEA
Ittihad Kalba2
Al Wasl2
21.05.24LEA
Ittihad Kalba2
Al Wasl4
30.04.24PC
Al Wasl4
Ittihad Kalba1
16.12.23LEA
Al Wasl2
Ittihad Kalba1
18.03.23LEA
Ittihad Kalba1
Al Wasl1
23.10.22LEA
Al Wasl2
Ittihad Kalba2
05.03.22LEA
Al Wasl1
Ittihad Kalba1
Recent Form
Al Wasl
11.05.26LEA
Al Jazira1
Al Wasl2
W
06.05.26LEA
Al Wahda2
Al Wasl3
W
24.04.26LEA
Al Wasl4
Dibba Al Fujairah2
W
19.04.26CL2
Al Wasl0
Al Nassr4
L
11.04.26LEA
Ajman1
Al Wasl3
W
05.04.26LEA
Al Sharjah2
Al Wasl1
L
18.03.26LEA
Al Wasl3
Al Dhafra0
W
12.03.26LEA
Al Ain2
Al Wasl0
L
07.03.26LEA
Bani Yas2
Al Wasl0
L
25.02.26LEA
Al Wasl1
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai1
D
Ittihad Kalba
11.05.26LEA
Al Nasr2
Ittihad Kalba1
L
05.05.26LEA
Ittihad Kalba0
Khorfakkan0
D
23.04.26LEA
Ittihad Kalba1
Bani Yas2
L
09.04.26LEA
Al Wahda2
Ittihad Kalba2
D
04.04.26LEA
Al Bataeh2
Ittihad Kalba2
D
17.03.26LEA
Ittihad Kalba2
Al Sharjah2
D
11.03.26LEA
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai5
Ittihad Kalba1
L
26.02.26LEA
Ittihad Kalba1
Al Dhafra1
D
21.02.26LEA
Ittihad Kalba2
Dibba Al Fujairah1
W
13.02.26LEA
Al Jazira2
Ittihad Kalba1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 15th May 2026, Al Wasl host Ittihad Kalba in UAE League. Our analysis desk recommends Al Wasl to win as the standout selection.

Al Wasl arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ittihad Kalba are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 5D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Wasl, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Ittihad Kalba's 0, with 6 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 90% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al wasl to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This UAE League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.31. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 16 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Wasl vs Ittihad Kalba?
Our selection is 1 — Al Wasl to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 47%.
What is Al Wasl's current form?
Al Wasl have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ittihad Kalba been performing recently?
Ittihad Kalba have recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Wasl lead with 4 wins versus Ittihad Kalba's 0, with 6 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 90%.
⚠️
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