WON Case WON Gold Coast Knights 2-1 Magic United
Fixture Case File · Ref V
G

Gold Coast Knights

Home Side
W L W W D
6W 2D 2L ▲ Trending Up
VS
2-1
M
Magic United
Away Side
W L L L L
2W 1D 7L ▲ Trending Up
CASE VERIFIED
67%
Friday, 19th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Gold Coast Knights to win
Gold Coast Knights 60%
Draw 20%
Magic United 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob89.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-22.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBG<<<<C<<<<<K<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<U<<<<<<<<<<F07AF7EF94DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 20 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Gold Coast Knights to win
1.12
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Gold Coast Knights vs Magic United Competition: Australia NPL Queensland Date: Friday, 19th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Gold Coast Knights to win) Odds: 1.12 Confidence: 67% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ledger Ref: F07AF7EF9
Head to Head
Record
1
Gold Coast Knights
0
Draws
0
Magic United
1
Meetings
7
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Gold Coast Knights won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Gold Coast Knights
Metric
Magic United
2.8
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.3
Goals Against / Game
2.7
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-1-7
Win Rate
60%
20%
4
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
G0
0-0 1.9%
0-1 2.3%
0-2 1.4%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
G1
1-0 5.3%
1-1 6.4%
1-2 3.8%
1-3 1.5%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
G2
2-0 7.3%
2-1 8.7%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.1%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.2%
G3
3-0 6.7%
3-1 8.0%
3-2 4.8%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.1%
G4
4-0 4.6%
4-1 5.5%
4-2 3.3%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
G5
5-0 2.5%
5-1 3.0%
5-2 1.8%
5-3 0.7%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(8.7%) 3-1(8.0%) 2-0(7.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing G=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Gold Coast Knights Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Magic United Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Gold Coast Knights
Overall
6.6
Scoring
9.3
Defence
5.7
Magic United
Overall
2.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
1.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 44%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.03.26QSL
Magic United0
Gold Coast Knights7
Recent Form
Gold Coast Knights
05.06.26QSL
Gold Coast Knights5
Olympic FC2
W
15.05.26QSL
Peninsula2
Gold Coast Knights0
L
10.05.26QSL
Gold Coast Knights3
Brisbane Roar U232
W
17.04.26QSL
Wynnum Wolves0
Gold Coast Knights4
W
10.04.26QSL
Gold Coast Knights1
Rochedale1
D
28.03.26QSL
Olympic FC1
Gold Coast Knights0
L
20.03.26QSL
Eastern Suburbs1
Gold Coast Knights2
W
14.03.26QSL
Brisbane City2
Gold Coast Knights4
W
08.03.26QSL
Magic United0
Gold Coast Knights7
W
27.02.26QSL
Queensland Lions2
Gold Coast Knights2
D
Magic United
06.06.26QSL
Magic United2
Brisbane Roar U231
W
03.06.26QSL
Rochedale4
Magic United0
L
31.05.26QSL
Magic United3
Queensland Lions5
L
23.05.26QSL
Peninsula3
Magic United2
L
10.05.26QSL
Magic United1
Wynnum Wolves3
L
24.04.26QSL
Olympic FC2
Magic United0
L
18.04.26QSL
Magic United0
Eastern Suburbs2
L
12.04.26QSL
Brisbane City2
Magic United2
D
07.04.26QSL
Magic United0
Moreton City Excelsior5
L
29.03.26QSL
Brisbane Roar U230
Magic United1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 19th June 2026, Gold Coast Knights host Magic United in Australia NPL Queensland. Our analysis desk recommends Gold Coast Knights to win as the standout selection.

Gold Coast Knights arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Magic United are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 1D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Gold Coast Knights, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Magic United's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: gold coast knights to win at odds of 1.12 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Australia NPL Queensland game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.12. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 20 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Gold Coast Knights vs Magic United?
Our selection is 1 — Gold Coast Knights to win, priced at approximately 1.12. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Gold Coast Knights's current form?
Gold Coast Knights have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Magic United been performing recently?
Magic United have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Gold Coast Knights lead with 1 wins versus Magic United's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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