WON Case WON Cork City 4-0 Treaty United
Fixture Case File · Ref V
C

Cork City

Home Side
W W W W W
7W 1D 2L ▼ Trending Down
VS
4-0
T
Treaty United
Away Side
D L L L W
2W 4D 4L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
60%
Friday, 19th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Cork City to win
Cork City 60%
Draw 20%
Treaty United 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob80.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-20.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBC<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<T<<<<<<U<<<<<<<<<411E362254DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 20 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
5
Cork City
4
Draws
1
Treaty United
10
Meetings
1.8
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
20%
Over 2.5
Neutral Cork City won 5 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Cork City
Metric
Treaty United
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1.4
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-1-2
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
70%
20%
2.4
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
C0
0-0 9.1%
0-1 7.3%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
C1
1-0 14.5%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 4.6%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.0%
C2
2-0 11.6%
2-1 9.3%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
C3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 5.0%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
C4
4-0 2.5%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.5%) 2-0(11.6%) 2-1(9.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing C=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Cork City Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Treaty United Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Cork City
Overall
7.3
Scoring
6.0
Defence
8.3
Treaty United
Overall
3.2
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 31%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.05.26DIV
Treaty United0
Cork City1
13.02.26DIV
Cork City1
Treaty United0
18.01.25CF
Cork City2
Treaty United1
04.10.24DIV
Cork City1
Treaty United1
02.08.24DIV
Treaty United1
Cork City1
24.05.24DIV
Cork City1
Treaty United1
22.03.24DIV
Treaty United0
Cork City0
22.07.23FAI
Treaty United0
Cork City2
21.01.23CF
Cork City3
Treaty United0
12.08.22DIV
Cork City0
Treaty United2
Recent Form
Cork City
12.06.26DIV
Wexford0
Cork City2
W
29.05.26DIV
Cork City4
Finn Harps0
W
25.05.26DIV
Treaty United0
Cork City1
W
22.05.26DIV
Athlone0
Cork City3
W
16.05.26DIV
Longford0
Cork City2
W
08.05.26DIV
Cork City3
UC Dublin1
W
04.05.26DIV
Kerry1
Cork City0
L
01.05.26DIV
Cork City0
Cobh Ramblers1
L
24.04.26DIV
Bray1
Cork City1
D
17.04.26DIV
Cork City2
Wexford1
W
Treaty United
12.06.26DIV
Treaty United2
Bray2
D
29.05.26DIV
Longford3
Treaty United1
L
25.05.26DIV
Treaty United0
Cork City1
L
22.05.26DIV
Treaty United1
Cobh Ramblers2
L
15.05.26DIV
Treaty United3
Finn Harps0
W
08.05.26DIV
Athlone0
Treaty United0
D
04.05.26DIV
Treaty United1
Wexford0
W
01.05.26DIV
Bray2
Treaty United2
D
24.04.26DIV
Treaty United0
UC Dublin3
L
17.04.26DIV
Kerry1
Treaty United1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 19th June 2026, Cork City host Treaty United in Ireland Division 1. Our analysis desk recommends Cork City to win as the standout selection.

Cork City arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Treaty United are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Cork City, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Treaty United's 1, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: cork city to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Ireland Division 1 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.24. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 20 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Cork City vs Treaty United?
Our selection is 1 — Cork City to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Cork City's current form?
Cork City have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Treaty United been performing recently?
Treaty United have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Cork City lead with 5 wins versus Treaty United's 1, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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