WON Case WON North East Utd 2-0 Mohammedan
Fixture Case File · Ref V
N

North East Utd

Home Side
W W L L D
3W 3D 4L ▲ Trending Up
VS
2-0
M
Mohammedan
Away Side
L L D D D
0W 3D 7L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
46%
Tuesday, 19th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on North East Utd to win
North East Utd 50%
Draw 30%
Mohammedan 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob79.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-33.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBN<<<<<E<<<<U<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<EEE97375C4DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 20 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — North East Utd to win
1.26
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
North East Utd vs Mohammedan Competition: India ISL Date: Tuesday, 19th May 2026 Pick: 1 (North East Utd to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 46% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: EEE97375C
Head to Head
Record
2
North East Utd
1
Draws
0
Mohammedan
3
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing North East Utd won 2 of the last 3 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
North East Utd
Metric
Mohammedan
1.3
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.7
Goals Against / Game
2.7
0%
Clean Sheets
10%
3-3-4
W — D — L
0-3-7
Win Rate
30%
0%
3.2
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
N0
0-0 4.1%
0-1 4.9%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
N1
1-0 8.2%
1-1 9.8%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
N2
2-0 8.2%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
N3
3-0 5.4%
3-1 6.5%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
N4
4-0 2.7%
4-1 3.3%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
N5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.3%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 1-0(8.2%) 2-0(8.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing N=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
North East Utd Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Mohammedan Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
North East Utd
Overall
3.9
Scoring
4.3
Defence
4.3
Mohammedan
Overall
0.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
1.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 33%
Draw & BTTS No 18%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 30%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 30%
Draw & Under 2.5 20%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
24.04.25HSC
North East Utd6
Mohammedan0
03.01.25ISL
North East Utd0
Mohammedan0
16.09.24ISL
Mohammedan0
North East Utd1
Recent Form
North East Utd
10.05.26ISL
North East Utd4
Chennaiyin1
W
02.05.26ISL
North East Utd3
Inter Kashi2
W
24.04.26ISL
North East Utd0
Goa2
L
19.04.26ISL
North East Utd0
Mohun Bagan1
L
15.04.26ISL
Kerala Blasters1
North East Utd1
D
10.04.26ISL
North East Utd0
SC Delhi3
L
20.03.26ISL
North East Utd1
Odisha FC4
L
15.03.26ISL
North East Utd2
Jamshedpur1
W
09.03.26ISL
Punjab1
North East Utd1
D
01.03.26ISL
Mumbai City1
North East Utd1
D
Mohammedan
15.05.26ISL
Mohammedan0
Mumbai City4
L
10.05.26ISL
Kerala Blasters3
Mohammedan1
L
26.04.26ISL
SC Delhi2
Mohammedan2
D
21.04.26ISL
Chennaiyin0
Mohammedan0
D
17.04.26ISL
Odisha FC1
Mohammedan1
D
12.04.26ISL
Inter Kashi1
Mohammedan0
L
03.04.26ISL
Punjab2
Mohammedan1
L
23.03.26ISL
East Bengal7
Mohammedan0
L
07.03.26ISL
Mohammedan1
Bengaluru FC2
L
28.02.26ISL
Mohun Bagan5
Mohammedan1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 19th May 2026, North East Utd host Mohammedan in India ISL. Our analysis desk recommends North East Utd to win as the standout selection.

North East Utd arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Mohammedan are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 3D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour North East Utd, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Mohammedan's 0, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: north east utd to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This India ISL game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.26. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 20 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for North East Utd vs Mohammedan?
Our selection is 1 — North East Utd to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 46%.
What is North East Utd's current form?
North East Utd have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mohammedan been performing recently?
Mohammedan have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
North East Utd lead with 2 wins versus Mohammedan's 0, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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