WON Case WON Ben Aknoun 3-0 Mostaganem
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Ben Aknoun

Home Side
L W D L W
4W 2D 4L ▼ Trending Down
VS
3-0
M
Mostaganem
Away Side
D L L L W
1W 2D 7L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
55%
Tuesday, 19th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Ben Aknoun to win
Ben Aknoun 50%
Draw 30%
Mostaganem 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob73.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-18.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<2BB12C7494DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 20 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Ben Aknoun to win
1.36
Over 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Ben Aknoun vs Mostaganem Competition: Algeria Ligue 1 Date: Tuesday, 19th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Ben Aknoun to win) Odds: 1.36 Confidence: 55% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Ledger Ref: 2BB12C749
Head to Head
Record
3
Ben Aknoun
0
Draws
0
Mostaganem
3
Meetings
1
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Ben Aknoun won 3 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Ben Aknoun
Metric
Mostaganem
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.6
1.7
Goals Against / Game
2.9
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
4-2-4
W — D — L
1-2-7
Win Rate
40%
10%
3.5
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
B0
0-0 3.2%
0-1 3.7%
0-2 2.1%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 7.3%
1-1 8.4%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
B2
2-0 8.4%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.1%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
B3
3-0 6.4%
3-1 7.4%
3-2 4.3%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 3.7%
4-1 4.3%
4-2 2.5%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 1.7%
5-1 2.0%
5-2 1.1%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.7%) 2-0(8.4%) 3-1(7.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Ben Aknoun Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Mostaganem Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Ben Aknoun
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
4.3
Mostaganem
Overall
1.6
Scoring
2.0
Defence
0.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 19%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.12.25DIV
Mostaganem0
Ben Aknoun1
02.06.23L2
Ben Aknoun1
Mostaganem0
11.01.23L2
Mostaganem0
Ben Aknoun1
Recent Form
Ben Aknoun
21.04.26DIV
Ben Aknoun2
MC Alger3
L
10.04.26DIV
Ben Aknoun2
ASO Chlef1
W
05.04.26DIV
ES Setif1
Ben Aknoun1
D
01.04.26DIV
Kabylie3
Ben Aknoun1
L
18.03.26DIV
Ben Aknoun3
Rouisset2
W
13.03.26DIV
Constantine0
Ben Aknoun0
D
07.03.26DIV
Ben Aknoun1
El Bayadh0
W
27.02.26DIV
Saoura1
Ben Aknoun0
L
21.02.26DIV
Ben Aknoun2
Khenchela3
L
14.02.26DIV
Paradou3
Ben Aknoun5
W
Mostaganem
12.05.26DIV
USM Alger1
Mostaganem1
D
07.05.26DIV
Mostaganem0
Saoura4
L
10.04.26DIV
Mostaganem0
Khenchela3
L
05.04.26DIV
CR Belouizdad7
Mostaganem0
L
17.03.26DIV
Mostaganem3
Paradou2
W
13.03.26DIV
ASO Chlef1
Mostaganem0
L
07.03.26DIV
Mostaganem0
MC Alger5
L
28.02.26DIV
ES Setif3
Mostaganem0
L
21.02.26DIV
Mostaganem2
Kabylie2
D
14.02.26DIV
Rouisset1
Mostaganem0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 19th May 2026, Ben Aknoun host Mostaganem in Algeria Ligue 1. Our analysis desk recommends Ben Aknoun to win as the standout selection.

Ben Aknoun arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Mostaganem are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Ben Aknoun, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Mostaganem's 0, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: ben aknoun to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Algeria Ligue 1 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.36. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 20 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ben Aknoun vs Mostaganem?
Our selection is 1 — Ben Aknoun to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is Ben Aknoun's current form?
Ben Aknoun have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mostaganem been performing recently?
Mostaganem have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Ben Aknoun lead with 3 wins versus Mostaganem's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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