WON Case WON Al Muharraq 1-0 Aali Club
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Al Muharraq

Home Side
W W W W W
8W 1D 1L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-0
A
Aali Club
Away Side
W W L L W
6W 0D 4L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
56%
Saturday, 16th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Al Muharraq to win
Al Muharraq 60%
Draw 20%
Aali Club 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob84.7%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-28.7%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<C6BAD3A244DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 16 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Al Muharraq to win
1.18
BTTS — No65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Al Muharraq vs Aali Club Competition: Bahrain Premier League Date: Saturday, 16th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Muharraq to win) Odds: 1.18 Confidence: 56% Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ledger Ref: C6BAD3A24
Head to Head
Record
0
Al Muharraq
1
Draws
0
Aali Club
1
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Al Muharraq won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Muharraq
Metric
Aali Club
1.8
Goals For / Game
1
0.8
Goals Against / Game
0.8
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
8-1-1
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate
80%
60%
2.2
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 11.1%
0-1 10.0%
0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 14.4%
1-1 13.0%
1-2 5.8%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 3.8%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 3.7%
3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.3%
4-1 1.2%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.4%) 2-0(9.4%) 2-1(8.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Muharraq Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Aali Club Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Muharraq
Overall
8.3
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.3
Aali Club
Overall
6.0
Scoring
3.3
Defence
7.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 36%
Draw & BTTS Yes 1%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 27%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 25%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 1%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 23%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
10.01.26PL
Aali Club1
Al-Muharraq1
Recent Form
Al Muharraq
11.05.26PL
Al Khalidiyah1
Al-Muharraq2
W
04.05.26PL
Al-Najma1
Al-Muharraq3
W
29.04.26PL
Al-Muharraq1
Al-Budaiya0
W
24.04.26KC
Al-Muharraq2
Al Riffa1
W
16.04.26PL
Al-Hidd0
Al-Muharraq1
W
11.04.26KC
Al-Muharraq2
Al-Ahli Manama1
W
03.04.26PL
Al-Muharraq3
Sitra0
W
18.03.26SC
Al-Muharraq0
Al Khalidiyah3
L
12.03.26PL
Al Riffa1
Al-Muharraq1
D
27.02.26KC
Al-Muharraq3
Al-Shabbab0
W
Aali Club
10.05.26PL
Aali Club2
Al-Budaiya0
W
04.05.26PL
Al-Hidd0
Aali Club1
W
27.04.26PL
Aali Club0
Sitra2
L
17.04.26PL
Al Riffa1
Aali Club0
L
02.04.26PL
Aali Club2
Bahrain SC1
W
14.03.26PL
Malkia0
Aali Club1
W
27.02.26KC
Al Khalidiyah2
Aali Club0
L
19.02.26PL
Aali Club0
Al-Shabbab1
L
12.02.26PL
Al-Ahli Manama1
Aali Club2
W
05.02.26KC
Aali Club2
Al-Najma0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 16th May 2026, Al Muharraq host Aali Club in Bahrain Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Al Muharraq to win as the standout selection.

Al Muharraq arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Aali Club are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 0D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Muharraq, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Aali Club's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al muharraq to win at odds of 1.18 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Bahrain Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.18. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 16 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Muharraq vs Aali Club?
Our selection is 1 — Al Muharraq to win, priced at approximately 1.18. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Al Muharraq's current form?
Al Muharraq have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Aali Club been performing recently?
Aali Club have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Muharraq lead with 0 wins versus Aali Club's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
⚠️
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