WON Case WON Atus Velden 2-1 Weindorf
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Atus Velden

Home Side
L W W W D
3W 2D 5L → Holding Steady
VS
2-1
W
Weindorf
Away Side
L W L L L
6W 0D 4L ▲ Trending Up
CAUTION
34%
Thursday, 2nd April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Atus Velden to win
Atus Velden 50%
Draw 30%
Weindorf 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob78.7%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-44.7%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<<<V<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<62C78DC6D4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 2 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Atus Velden to win
1.27
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Atus Velden vs Weindorf Competition: Austria Regionalliga Central Date: Thursday, 2nd April 2026 Pick: 1 (Atus Velden to win) Odds: 1.27 Confidence: 34% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: 62C78DC6D
Head to Head
Record
0
Atus Velden
1
Draws
0
Weindorf
1
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Atus Velden won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Atus Velden
Metric
Weindorf
1.4
Goals For / Game
2.2
2.5
Goals Against / Game
2.1
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
3-2-5
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate
30%
60%
4.1
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
W0
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
A0
0-0 1.7%
0-1 3.9%
0-2 4.6%
0-3 3.6%
0-4 2.1%
0-5 1.0%
A1
1-0 2.9%
1-1 6.8%
1-2 8.0%
1-3 6.3%
1-4 3.7%
1-5 1.7%
A2
2-0 2.5%
2-1 6.0%
2-2 7.0%
2-3 5.5%
2-4 3.2%
2-5 1.5%
A3
3-0 1.5%
3-1 3.5%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 3.2%
3-4 1.9%
3-5 0.9%
A4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 1.5%
4-2 1.8%
4-3 1.4%
4-4 0.8%
4-5 0.4%
A5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(6.0%) 3-2(4.1%) 3-1(3.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   W=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Atus Velden Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Weindorf Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Atus Velden
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
1.7
Weindorf
Overall
6.0
Scoring
7.3
Defence
3.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Away Win & BTTS No 30%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 21%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 42%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
06.09.25
RL: Weindorf St. Anna1
ATUS Velden1
Recent Form
Atus Velden
28.03.26
RL: ASK Voitsberg6
ATUS Velden0
L
20.03.26
RL: ATUS Velden1
Wolfsberger AC (Am)0
W
14.03.26
RL: Dietach0
ATUS Velden3
W
07.03.26
RL: ATUS Velden3
LASK (Am)1
W
27.02.26
RL: Lafnitz1
ATUS Velden1
D
13.02.26
CF: Völkermarkt2
ATUS Velden1
L
24.01.26
CF: SAK Klagenfurt4
ATUS Velden3
L
10.01.26
CF: Wolfsberger AC8
ATUS Velden0
L
07.11.25
RL: Gleisdorf1
ATUS Velden0
L
31.10.25
RL: ATUS Velden2
Deutschlandsberger2
D
Weindorf
28.03.26
RL: Weindorf St. Anna0
Ried (Am)2
L
21.03.26
RL: Treibach0
Weindorf St. Anna2
W
14.03.26
RL: Weindorf St. Anna0
Kalsdorf1
L
07.03.26
RL: Weindorf St. Anna0
ASK Voitsberg8
L
28.02.26
RL: Wolfsberger AC (Am)3
Weindorf St. Anna0
L
10.02.26
CF: Weindorf St. Anna5
UFC Fehring1
W
06.02.26
CF: Weindorf St. Anna2
Tillmitsch1
W
30.01.26
CF: Weindorf St. Anna3
Ilzer SV1
W
27.01.26
CF: Weindorf St. Anna7
Allerheiligen3
W
16.01.26
CF: Weindorf St. Anna3
Lebring1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 2nd April 2026, Atus Velden host Weindorf in Austria Regionalliga Central. Our analysis desk recommends Atus Velden to win as the standout selection.

Atus Velden arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Weindorf are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 0D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Atus Velden, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Weindorf's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: atus velden to win at odds of 1.27 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Austria Regionalliga Central game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.27. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 2 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Atus Velden vs Weindorf?
Our selection is 1 — Atus Velden to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 34%.
What is Atus Velden's current form?
Atus Velden have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Weindorf been performing recently?
Weindorf have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Atus Velden lead with 0 wins versus Weindorf's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
⚠️
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