WON Case WON Al Faisaly 2-1 Al Jubail
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Al Faisaly

Home Side
D W W W W
8W 2D 0L ▼ Trending Down
VS
2-1
A
Al Jubail
Away Side
L W L W L
2W 2D 6L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
63%
Thursday, 2nd April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Al Faisaly to win
Al Faisaly 50%
Draw 30%
Al Jubail 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob72.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-9.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<F<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<J<<<<<<<<<<<<<146E9F2F24DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 2 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Al Faisaly to win
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Al Faisaly vs Al Jubail Competition: Saudi Division 1 Date: Thursday, 2nd April 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Faisaly to win) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 63% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (80%) Ledger Ref: 146E9F2F2
Head to Head
Record
2
Al Faisaly
1
Draws
0
Al Jubail
3
Meetings
1.3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Al Faisaly won 2 of the last 3 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Faisaly
Metric
Al Jubail
3.2
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.5
Goals Against / Game
2.1
0%
Clean Sheets
10%
8-2-0
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
80%
20%
4
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
80%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 1.8%
0-1 2.5%
0-2 1.7%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 4.9%
1-1 6.6%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
A2
2-0 6.4%
2-1 8.7%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.6%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
A3
3-0 5.7%
3-1 7.7%
3-2 5.2%
3-3 2.3%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.2%
A4
4-0 3.8%
4-1 5.1%
4-2 3.4%
4-3 1.5%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 2.0%
5-1 2.7%
5-2 1.8%
5-3 0.8%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(8.7%) 3-1(7.7%) 2-0(6.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Faisaly Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Al Jubail Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Faisaly
Overall
8.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
5.0
Al Jubail
Overall
2.6
Scoring
4.0
Defence
3.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 54%
Home Win & BTTS No 13%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 3%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 54%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 3%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
28.11.25
Division 1: Al Jubail0
Al-Faisaly1
12.02.25
Division 1: Al Jubail1
Al-Faisaly1
17.09.24
Division 1: Al-Faisaly1
Al Jubail0
Recent Form
Al Faisaly
28.03.26
Division 1: Al-Faisaly4
Al Bukayriyah1
W
21.03.26
Division 1: Al-Tai2
Al-Faisaly3
W
14.03.26
Division 1: Al-Faisaly2
Al-Batin1
W
07.03.26
Division 1: Al-Faisaly2
Al Diriyah2
D
02.03.26
Division 1: Al Adalah1
Al-Faisaly6
W
25.02.26
Division 1: Al-Faisaly2
Al-Ula1
W
20.02.26
Division 1: Al Zulfi2
Al-Faisaly3
W
15.02.26
Division 1: Al-Faisaly4
Al Anwar1
W
10.02.26
Division 1: Al Wehda2
Al-Faisaly2
D
04.02.26
Division 1: Al-Faisaly4
Al Jandal2
W
Al Jubail
27.03.26
Division 1: Abha2
Al Jubail0
L
01.03.26
Division 1: Al Jubail2
Al Bukiryah1
W
24.02.26
Division 1: Al Raed1
Al Jubail0
L
19.02.26
Division 1: Al Jubail1
Al Batin0
W
14.02.26
Division 1: Al Taee4
Al Jubail0
L
09.02.26
Division 1: Al Jubail2
Al Orubah3
L
04.02.26
Division 1: Al Anwar4
Al Jubail3
L
30.01.26
Division 1: Al Batin3
Al Jubail1
L
26.01.26
Division 1: Al Jubail2
Al Zulfi2
D
21.01.26
Division 1: Jeddah1
Al Jubail1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 2nd April 2026, Al Faisaly host Al Jubail in Saudi Division 1. Our analysis desk recommends Al Faisaly to win as the standout selection.

Al Faisaly arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Jubail are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Faisaly, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Al Jubail's 0, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al faisaly to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Saudi Division 1 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.38. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 2 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Faisaly vs Al Jubail?
Our selection is 1 — Al Faisaly to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Al Faisaly's current form?
Al Faisaly have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Jubail been performing recently?
Al Jubail have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Faisaly lead with 2 wins versus Al Jubail's 0, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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