WON Case WON Chelsea W 2-1 Brighton W

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Chelsea W

Q: What is the recommended bet for Chelsea W vs Brighton W?

Our selection is 1 — Chelsea W to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 64%.

Q: What is Chelsea W's current form?

Chelsea W have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

Q: How has Brighton W been performing recently?

Brighton W have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Chelsea W lead with 7 wins versus Brighton W's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

Home Side

W W W W L

8W 0D 2L ▲ Trending Up

2-1

Brighton W

Away Side

W L L W W

5W 0D 5L ▲ Trending Up

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MODERATE

64%

Wednesday, 18th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Chelsea W to win

Chelsea W 50%

Draw 30%

Brighton W 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob82.6%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-18.6%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBC<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<E52E9A6904DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Chelsea W to win

1.21

Over 1.5 Goals80% Chelsea W Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Chelsea W vs Brighton W Competition: WSL Date: Wednesday, 18th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Chelsea W to win) Odds: 1.21 Confidence: 64% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: Chelsea W Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: E52E9A690

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Head to Head

Record

Chelsea W

Draws

Brighton W

Meetings

3.5

Avg Goals

60%

BTTS

80%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Chelsea W won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Chelsea W

Metric

Brighton W

2.9

Goals For / Game

1.4

0.9

Goals Against / Game

1.3

60%

Clean Sheets

30%

8-0-2

W — D — L

5-0-5

Win Rate

80%

50%

3.3

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

55%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 3.9%

0-1 4.5%

0-2 2.6%

0-3 1.0%

0-4 0.3%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 8.1%

1-1 9.4%

1-2 5.4%

1-3 2.1%

1-4 0.6%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 8.6%

2-1 9.8%

2-2 5.7%

2-3 2.2%

2-4 0.6%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 6.0%

3-1 6.9%

3-2 4.0%

3-3 1.5%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 3.1%

4-1 3.6%

4-2 2.1%

4-3 0.8%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 1.3%

5-1 1.5%

5-2 0.9%

5-3 0.3%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 2-0(8.6%) 1-0(8.1%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing C=Home goals ↓ B=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Chelsea W Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Brighton W Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Chelsea W

Overall

8.0 —

Scoring

9.7 —

Defence

7.0 —

Brighton W

Overall

5.0 ▼

Scoring

4.7 ▼

Defence

5.7 ▼

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%

Home Win & BTTS No 37%

Draw & BTTS Yes 0%

Draw & BTTS No 0%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%

Away Win & BTTS No 23%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 34%

Home Win & Under 2.5 28%

Draw & Over 2.5 0%

Draw & Under 2.5 0%

Away Win & Over 2.5 21%

Away Win & Under 2.5 17%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

14.12.25

WSL: Brighton W0

Chelsea3

02.03.25

WSL: Brighton W2

Chelsea2

08.12.24

WSL: Chelsea W4

Brighton2

27.01.24

WSL: Brighton W0

Chelsea3

22.10.23

WSL: Chelsea W4

Brighton2

08.03.23

WSL: Chelsea W3

Brighton1

23.10.22

WSL: Brighton W0

Chelsea2

23.01.22

WSL: Brighton W0

Chelsea0

02.10.21

WSL: Chelsea W3

Brighton1

07.02.21

WSL: Chelsea W1

Brighton2

Recent Form

Chelsea W

15.03.26

CUP: Chelsea W2

Manchester Utd W0

22.02.26

FAC: Chelsea W2

Manchester Utd W1

15.02.26

WSL: Chelsea W2

Liverpool W0

08.02.26

WSL: Tottenham W0

Chelsea W2

01.02.26

WSL: Manchester City W5

Chelsea W1

24.01.26

WSL: Chelsea W0

Arsenal W2

21.01.26

CUP: Manchester City W0

Chelsea W1

17.01.26

FAC: Chelsea W5

Crystal Palace W0

11.01.26

WSL: Chelsea W5

West Ham W0

21.12.25

CUP: Liverpool W1

Chelsea W9

Brighton W

22.02.26

FAC: West Ham W1

Brighton W2

08.02.26

WSL: West Ham W3

Brighton W2

01.02.26

WSL: Brighton W1

London City Lionesses W2

23.01.26

WSL: Everton W0

Brighton W1

18.01.26

FAC: Brighton W2

Nottingham W0

11.01.26

WSL: Aston Villa W2

Brighton W1

14.12.25

WSL: Brighton W0

Chelsea W3

07.12.25

WSL: London City Lionesses W0

Brighton W1

16.11.25

WSL: Brighton W4

Leicester W1

12.11.25

CUP: Brighton W0

Charlton W1

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Wednesday, 18th March 2026, Chelsea W host Brighton W in WSL. Our analysis desk recommends Chelsea W to win as the standout selection.

Chelsea W arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Brighton W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 0D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Chelsea W, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Brighton W's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: chelsea w to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 18 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Chelsea W vs Brighton W?

Our selection is 1 — Chelsea W to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 64%.

What is Chelsea W's current form?

Chelsea W have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Brighton W been performing recently?

Brighton W have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Chelsea W lead with 7 wins versus Brighton W's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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