WON Case WON Beroe 0-1 Levski Sofia

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Beroe

Q: What is the recommended bet for Beroe vs Levski Sofia?

Our selection is 2 — Levski Sofia to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 61%.

Q: What is Beroe's current form?

Beroe have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Levski Sofia been performing recently?

Levski Sofia have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Beroe lead with 1 wins versus Levski Sofia's 4, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

Home Side

L L D D L

1W 2D 2L ▲ Trending Up

0-1

Levski Sofia

Away Side

W L W W W

3W 0D 2L → Holding Steady

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MODERATE

61%

Sunday, 15th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Levski Sofia to win

Beroe 30%

Draw 20%

Levski Sofia 50%

H Fair Odds3.33

D Fair Odds5

A Fair Odds2

Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-15.3%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBB<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<L<<<<<<S<<<<<<<<<ADAF0E79A4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 15 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

2 — Levski Sofia to win

1.31

BTTS — No70%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Beroe vs Levski Sofia Competition: Bulgaria EFBET League Date: Sunday, 15th March 2026 Pick: 2 (Levski Sofia to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 61% Also: BTTS — No (70%) Ledger Ref: ADAF0E79A

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Head to Head

Record

Beroe

Draws

Levski Sofia

Meetings

2.6

Avg Goals

40%

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Levski Sofia won 4 of 5 meetings.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Beroe

Metric

Levski Sofia

0.4

Goals For / Game

Goals Against / Game

1.2

40%

Clean Sheets

40%

1-2-2

W — D — L

3-0-2

Win Rate

20%

60%

2.3

Avg Goals

50%

Over 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

30%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 10.0%

0-1 15.0%

0-2 11.3%

0-3 5.6%

0-4 2.1%

0-5 0.6%

1-0 8.0%

1-1 12.0%

1-2 9.0%

1-3 4.5%

1-4 1.7%

1-5 0.5%

2-0 3.2%

2-1 4.8%

2-2 3.6%

2-3 1.8%

2-4 0.7%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 0.9%

3-1 1.3%

3-2 1.0%

3-3 0.5%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 0.2%

4-1 0.3%

4-2 0.2%

4-3 0.1%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.0%

5-1 0.0%

5-2 0.0%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 0-1(15.0%) 0-2(11.3%) 1-2(9.0%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓ L=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Beroe Win

30%

3.33

Draw

20%

Levski Sofia Win

50%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Beroe

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

1.3 —

Defence

6.7 —

Levski Sofia

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

6.7 —

Defence

6.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 6%

Home Win & BTTS No 14%

Draw & BTTS Yes 6%

Draw & BTTS No 14%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Away Win & BTTS No 42%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 10%

Home Win & Under 2.5 10%

Draw & Over 2.5 10%

Draw & Under 2.5 10%

Away Win & Over 2.5 30%

Away Win & Under 2.5 30%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

04.10.25

1L: Levski Sofia3

Beroe1

03.07.25

CF: Levski Sofia3

Beroe2

06.04.25

1L: Beroe0

Levski Sofia1

25.10.24

1L: Levski Sofia0

Beroe2

20.04.24

1L: Levski Sofia1

Beroe0

Recent Form

Beroe

08.03.26

1L: Dobrudzha Dobrich1

Beroe0

03.03.26

1L: Beroe0

Slavia Sofia3

28.02.26

1L: Botev Vratsa0

Beroe0

22.02.26

1L: Beroe0

Arda Kardzhali0

15.02.26

1L: Beroe2

Ludogorets1

Levski Sofia

09.03.26

1L: Levski Sofia1

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0

05.03.26

1L: Ludogorets1

Levski Sofia0

01.03.26

1L: Levski Sofia4

Lokomotiv Sofia3

22.02.26

1L: CSKA 1948 Sofia1

Levski Sofia3

15.02.26

1L: Levski Sofia3

Botev Plovdiv0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Sunday, 15th March 2026, Beroe host Levski Sofia in Bulgaria EFBET League. Our analysis desk recommends Levski Sofia to win as the standout selection.

Beroe arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Levski Sofia are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 0D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Beroe, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Levski Sofia's 4, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: levski sofia to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 15 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Beroe vs Levski Sofia?

Our selection is 2 — Levski Sofia to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 61%.

What is Beroe's current form?

Beroe have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Levski Sofia been performing recently?

Levski Sofia have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Beroe lead with 1 wins versus Levski Sofia's 4, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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