WON Case WON Napoli 2-1 Lecce

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Napoli

Q: What is the recommended bet for Napoli vs Lecce?

Our selection is 1 — Napoli to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 19%.

Q: What is Napoli's current form?

Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Lecce been performing recently?

Lecce have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Napoli lead with 4 wins versus Lecce's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

Home Side

W W L D L

2W 1D 2L ▼ Trending Down

2-1

Lecce

Away Side

W L L W W

3W 0D 2L → Holding Steady

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CAUTION

19%

Saturday, 14th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Napoli to win

Implied Prob71.4%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-52.4%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBN<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<L<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<B653C8D494DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 14 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Napoli to win

1.40

Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals100% BTTS — Yes80%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Napoli vs Lecce Competition: Serie A Date: Saturday, 14th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Napoli to win) Odds: 1.40 Confidence: 19% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (100%) Also: BTTS — Yes (80%) Ledger Ref: B653C8D49

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Head to Head

Record

Napoli

Draws

Lecce

Meetings

1.4

Avg Goals

BTTS

20%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Napoli won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Napoli

Metric

Lecce

1.6

Goals For / Game

1.4

1.6

Goals Against / Game

1.4

Clean Sheets

20%

2-1-2

W — D — L

3-0-2

Win Rate

40%

60%

Avg Goals

100%

Over 1.5

80%

Over 2.5

80%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 5.0%

0-1 7.5%

0-2 5.6%

0-3 2.8%

0-4 1.1%

0-5 0.3%

1-0 7.5%

1-1 11.2%

1-2 8.4%

1-3 4.2%

1-4 1.6%

1-5 0.5%

2-0 5.6%

2-1 8.4%

2-2 6.3%

2-3 3.2%

2-4 1.2%

2-5 0.4%

3-0 2.8%

3-1 4.2%

3-2 3.2%

3-3 1.6%

3-4 0.6%

3-5 0.2%

4-0 1.1%

4-1 1.6%

4-2 1.2%

4-3 0.6%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.3%

5-1 0.5%

5-2 0.4%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 2-1(8.4%) 1-0(7.5%) 2-0(5.6%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing N=Home goals ↓ L=Away →

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Team Ratings

Grades

Napoli

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

4.7 —

Lecce

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

4.7 —

Defence

5.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%

Home Win & BTTS No 7%

Draw & BTTS Yes 7%

Draw & BTTS No 2%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 44%

Away Win & BTTS No 11%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 29%

Home Win & Under 2.5 7%

Draw & Over 2.5 7%

Draw & Under 2.5 2%

Away Win & Over 2.5 44%

Away Win & Under 2.5 11%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

📜

Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ SA (Oct 28, 2025): Lecce0

Napoli1

⚽ SA (May 3, 2025): Lecce0

Napoli1

⚽ SA (Oct 26, 2024): Napoli1

Lecce0

⚽ SA (May 26, 2024): Napoli0

Lecce0

⚽ SA (Sep 30, 2023): Lecce0

Napoli4

Recent Form

Napoli

⚽ SA (Mar 6, 2026): Napoli2

Torino1

⚽ SA (Feb 28, 2026): Verona1

Napoli2

⚽ SA (Feb 22, 2026): Atalanta2

Napoli1

⚽ SA (Feb 15, 2026): Napoli2

AS Roma2

⚽ COP (Feb 10, 2026): Napoli1

Como2

Lecce

⚽ SA (Mar 8, 2026): Lecce2

Cremonese1

⚽ SA (Feb 28, 2026): Como3

Lecce1

⚽ SA (Feb 21, 2026): Lecce0

Inter2

⚽ SA (Feb 16, 2026): Cagliari0

Lecce2

⚽ SA (Feb 8, 2026): Lecce2

Udinese1

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Saturday, 14th March 2026, Napoli host Lecce in Serie A. Our analysis desk recommends Napoli to win as the standout selection.

Napoli arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Lecce are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 0D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Napoli, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Lecce's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: napoli to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 14 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Napoli vs Lecce?

Our selection is 1 — Napoli to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 19%.

What is Napoli's current form?

Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Lecce been performing recently?

Lecce have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Napoli lead with 4 wins versus Lecce's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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