LOST Case LOST Bayern Leverkusen 1-1 Arsenal

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Bayern Leverkusen

Q: What is the recommended bet for Bayern Leverkusen vs Arsenal?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 48%.

Q: What is Bayern Leverkusen's current form?

Bayern Leverkusen have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Arsenal been performing recently?

Arsenal have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Bayern Leverkusen lead with 0 wins versus Arsenal's 2, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

Home Side

D W D D L

1W 3D 1L ▼ Trending Down

1-1

Arsenal

Away Side

W W W W D

4W 1D 0L ▼ Trending Down

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MODERATE

48%

Wednesday, 11th March 2026 Case Verdict

Over 1.5

Filing on over 1.5 goals

Bayern Leverkusen 30%

Draw 20%

Arsenal 50%

H Fair Odds3.33

D Fair Odds5

A Fair Odds2

Implied Prob81.3%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-33.3%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBB<<<<<<L<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<274231F894DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Head to Head

Record

Bayern Leverkusen

Draws

Arsenal

Meetings

Avg Goals

100%

BTTS

67%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Bayern Leverkusen

Metric

Arsenal

Goals For / Game

2.2

Goals Against / Game

40%

Clean Sheets

20%

1-3-1

W — D — L

4-1-0

Win Rate

20%

80%

2.6

Avg Goals

60%

Over 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 7.4%

0-1 11.9%

0-2 9.5%

0-3 5.1%

0-4 2.0%

0-5 0.7%

1-0 7.4%

1-1 11.9%

1-2 9.5%

1-3 5.1%

1-4 2.0%

1-5 0.7%

2-0 3.7%

2-1 5.9%

2-2 4.8%

2-3 2.5%

2-4 1.0%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 1.2%

3-1 2.0%

3-2 1.6%

3-3 0.9%

3-4 0.3%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 0.3%

4-1 0.5%

4-2 0.4%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.1%

5-1 0.1%

5-2 0.1%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 0-1(11.9%) 1-1(11.9%) 0-2(9.5%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓ A=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Bayern Leverkusen Win

30%

3.33

Draw

20%

Arsenal Win

50%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Bayern Leverkusen

Overall

3.8 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

6.7 —

Arsenal

Overall

8.6 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

6.7 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 8%

Home Win & BTTS No 6%

Draw & BTTS Yes 17%

Draw & BTTS No 12%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 34%

Away Win & BTTS No 23%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 7%

Home Win & Under 2.5 7%

Draw & Over 2.5 15%

Draw & Under 2.5 15%

Away Win & Over 2.5 29%

Away Win & Under 2.5 29%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ CF (07.08.24): Arsenal4

Bayer Leverkusen1

⚽ CL (27.02.02): Arsenal4

Bayer Leverkusen1

⚽ CL (19.02.02): Bayer Leverkusen1

Arsenal1

Recent Form

Bayern Leverkusen

⚽ BUN (07.03.26): Freiburg3

Bayer Leverkusen3

⚽ BUN (04.03.26): Hamburger SV0

Bayer Leverkusen1

⚽ BUN (28.02.26): Bayer Leverkusen1

Mainz1

⚽ CL (24.02.26): Bayer Leverkusen0

Olympiacos Piraeus0

⚽ BUN (21.02.26): Union Berlin1

Bayer Leverkusen0

Arsenal

⚽ FAC (07.03.26): Mansfield1

Arsenal2

⚽ PL (04.03.26): Brighton0

Arsenal1

⚽ PL (01.03.26): Arsenal2

Chelsea1

⚽ PL (22.02.26): Tottenham1

Arsenal4

⚽ PL (18.02.26): Wolves2

Arsenal2

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Wednesday, 11th March 2026, Bayern Leverkusen host Arsenal in UEFA Champions League. Our analysis desk recommends over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Bayern Leverkusen arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Arsenal are travelling well, with a record of 4W 1D 0L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Bayern Leverkusen, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Arsenal's 2, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 12 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Bayern Leverkusen vs Arsenal?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 48%.

What is Bayern Leverkusen's current form?

Bayern Leverkusen have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Arsenal been performing recently?

Arsenal have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Bayern Leverkusen lead with 0 wins versus Arsenal's 2, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

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