WON Case WON Sabah Baku 7-1 Gabala

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Sabah Baku

Q: What is the recommended bet for Sabah Baku vs Gabala?

Our selection is 1 — Sabah Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 62%.

Q: What is Sabah Baku's current form?

Sabah Baku have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Gabala been performing recently?

Gabala have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Sabah Baku lead with 3 wins versus Gabala's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

Home Side

W D W W W

4W 1D 0L ▲ Trending Up

7-1

Gabala

Away Side

L D L D L

0W 2D 3L → Holding Steady

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MODERATE

62%

Tuesday, 10th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Sabah Baku to win

Sabah Baku 50%

Draw 30%

Gabala 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob76.9%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-14.9%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBS<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<E9175036C4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 11 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Head to Head

Record

Sabah Baku

Draws

Gabala

Meetings

2.2

Avg Goals

20%

BTTS

20%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Sabah Baku won 3 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Sabah Baku

Metric

Gabala

2.6

Goals For / Game

0.8

1.4

Goals Against / Game

1.8

40%

Clean Sheets

20%

4-1-0

W — D — L

0-2-3

Win Rate

80%

3.3

Avg Goals

60%

Over 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 3.7%

0-1 4.1%

0-2 2.2%

0-3 0.8%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 8.1%

1-1 8.9%

1-2 4.9%

1-3 1.8%

1-4 0.5%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 8.9%

2-1 9.8%

2-2 5.4%

2-3 2.0%

2-4 0.5%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 6.6%

3-1 7.2%

3-2 4.0%

3-3 1.5%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 3.6%

4-1 4.0%

4-2 2.2%

4-3 0.8%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 1.6%

5-1 1.7%

5-2 1.0%

5-3 0.4%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 2-0(8.9%) 1-0(8.1%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓ G=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Sabah Baku Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Gabala Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Sabah Baku

Overall

8.6 —

Scoring

8.7 —

Defence

5.3 —

Gabala

Overall

1.2 —

Scoring

2.7 —

Defence

4.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%

Home Win & BTTS No 37%

Draw & BTTS Yes 14%

Draw & BTTS No 14%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Away Win & BTTS No 0%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 37%

Home Win & Under 2.5 37%

Draw & Over 2.5 14%

Draw & Under 2.5 14%

Away Win & Over 2.5 0%

Away Win & Under 2.5 0%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Gabala3

Sabah Baku4

⚽ PL (16.02.26): Gabala0

Sabah Baku1

⚽ CUP (04.02.26): Sabah Baku0

Gabala0

⚽ PL (03.11.25): Sabah Baku1

Gabala0

⚽ PL (12.05.24): Gabala2

Sabah Baku0

Recent Form

Sabah Baku

⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Gabala3

Sabah Baku4

⚽ PL (01.03.26): Qarabag3

Sabah Baku3

⚽ PL (22.02.26): Sabah Baku1

Kapaz0

⚽ PL (16.02.26): Gabala0

Sabah Baku1

⚽ PL (08.02.26): Sabah Baku4

Araz1

Gabala

⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Gabala3

Sabah Baku4

⚽ PL (28.02.26): Gabala1

Karvan1

⚽ PL (24.02.26): Gabala0

Turan Tovuz3

⚽ PL (20.02.26): Sumqayit0

Gabala0

⚽ PL (16.02.26): Gabala0

Sabah Baku1

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Sabah Baku host Gabala in Azerbaijan League. Our analysis desk recommends Sabah Baku to win as the standout selection.

Sabah Baku arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Gabala are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Sabah Baku, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Gabala's 1, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: sabah baku to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 11 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Sabah Baku vs Gabala?

Our selection is 1 — Sabah Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 62%.

What is Sabah Baku's current form?

Sabah Baku have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Gabala been performing recently?

Gabala have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Sabah Baku lead with 3 wins versus Gabala's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

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